Cardiff vs Charlton: model prediction
ChampionshipDLLDL
WDLDD
Over 8.5 corners
Over 1.5 goals
Cardiff or draw
Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).
Win probability · fair 2.82
Top signals
Model read
"When model and market disagree on Cardiff, that gap is the story." Cardiff versus Charlton in the Championship on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. Cardiff edge it at 35%, but the gap to the field is slim. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Cardiff higher (53%) than our model does. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 38% with both teams to score at 46%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Cardiff, 3 draws and 1 for Charlton at 2.0 goals per match. The run in: Cardiff arrive W0 D3 L3, Charlton W2 D3 L1. Cardiff are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
35.4%-17.7%
30.2%+6.1%
34.3%+11.5%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cardiff 1 · 3 draws · Charlton 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
42.9%42.9%
71.4%42.9%
0.0%42.9%
League averages this season: 2.74 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 67.8% | Over 24.5 | 55.7% | Over 26.5 | 43.3% | Over 28.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 71.2% | Most: Charlton | 23.6% | ||||
| Cardiff Over 13.2 | 59.0% | Charlton Over 13.2 | 24.3% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.8% | Over 7.5 | 60.7% | Over 8.5 | 48.2% | Over 9.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 60.1% | Most: Charlton | 28.1% | ||||
| Cardiff Over 4.2 | 53.7% | Charlton Over 4.2 | 30.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.0% | Over 3.5 | 48.8% | Over 4.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 26.4% | Most: Charlton | 52.8% | ||
| Cardiff Over 1.8 | 43.5% | Charlton Over 1.8 | 63.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Cardiff clean sheet | 33.1% |
|---|---|
| Charlton clean sheet | 32.5% |
| Cardiff win to nil | 21.7% |
| Charlton win to nil | 21.0% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 35.4% | draw | 30.3% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 65.7% | 12 | 69.8% | X2 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 50.8% | away | 49.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.8% | no | 54.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.2% | away | 32.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.7% | away | 21.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.7% | home_by_2 | 10.1% | home_by_3plus | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.3% | away_by_2 | 9.7% | away_by_3plus | 4.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 11.5% | 0-1 | 11.2% | 0-2 | 6.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.4% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 14.0% | 1-2 | 7.4% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 2-1 | 7.5% | 2-2 | 4.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.6% | 3-1 | 2.8% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 88.6% | under_0.5 | 11.5% | over_1.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 34.1% | over_2.5 | 38.5% | under_2.5 | 61.5% |
| over_3.5 | 18.7% | under_3.5 | 81.4% | over_4.5 | 7.6% |
| under_4.5 | 92.4% | over_5.5 | 2.6% | under_5.5 | 97.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.1% | even | 51.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 67.5% | under_0.5 | 32.5% | over_1.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.0% | over_2.5 | 10.5% | under_2.5 | 89.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.8% | under_0.5 | 33.2% | over_1.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.8% | over_2.5 | 10.0% | under_2.5 | 90.0% |
most
| home | 35.4% | draw | 30.3% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.6% | away_+2.5 | 95.4% | home_-1.5 | 14.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.3% | home_-0.5 | 35.4% | away_+0.5 | 64.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% | home_+1.5 | 85.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.1% | home_+2.5 | 95.7% | away_-2.5 | 4.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 11.5% | exact_1 | 22.7% | exact_2 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.9% | exact_4 | 11.1% | exact_5 | 4.9% |
| exact_6 | 1.8% | exact_7plus | 0.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.5% | draw | 46.3% | away | 19.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.9% | under_0.5 | 37.1% | over_1.5 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.9% | over_2.5 | 7.9% | under_2.5 | 92.1% |
btts
| yes | 14.5% | no | 85.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.1% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.0% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.9% | draw | 43.1% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.3% | under_0.5 | 31.7% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.2% | over_2.5 | 10.9% | under_2.5 | 89.1% |
btts
| yes | 19.0% | no | 81.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.3% | H/D | 6.1% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.4% | D/D | 19.9% | D/A | 13.9% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 14.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 81.4% | under_7.5 | 18.6% | over_8.5 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 28.3% | over_9.5 | 60.6% | under_9.5 | 39.4% |
| over_10.5 | 49.0% | under_10.5 | 51.0% | over_11.5 | 37.9% |
| under_11.5 | 62.1% | over_12.5 | 28.0% | under_12.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 83.4% | under_3.5 | 16.7% | over_4.5 | 71.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 28.9% | over_5.5 | 57.0% | under_5.5 | 43.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.1% | under_3.5 | 38.9% | over_4.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.3% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 63.7% | draw | 9.4% | away | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.1% | away_+3.5 | 66.9% | home_-1.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 46.6% | home_-0.5 | 63.7% | away_+0.5 | 36.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.2% | away_-0.5 | 26.8% | home_+1.5 | 81.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.8% | home_+3.5 | 92.1% | away_-3.5 | 7.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 67.8% | under_22.5 | 32.2% | over_24.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 44.3% | over_26.5 | 43.3% | under_26.5 | 56.7% |
| over_28.5 | 31.7% | under_28.5 | 68.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.9% | under_10.5 | 19.1% | over_12.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 33.2% | over_14.5 | 51.0% | under_14.5 | 49.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.6% | under_10.5 | 50.4% | over_12.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.3% | over_14.5 | 18.1% | under_14.5 | 81.9% |
most
| home | 71.2% | draw | 5.1% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 47.1% | away_+4.5 | 52.9% | home_-2.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 40.4% | home_-0.5 | 71.2% | away_+0.5 | 28.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 76.4% | away_-0.5 | 23.6% | home_+2.5 | 85.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 15.0% | home_+4.5 | 91.1% | away_-4.5 | 8.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.8% | under_6.5 | 27.2% | over_7.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.3% | over_8.5 | 48.2% | under_8.5 | 51.8% |
| over_9.5 | 36.4% | under_9.5 | 63.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.1% | under_3.5 | 29.9% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.3% | over_5.5 | 37.9% | under_5.5 | 62.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.8% | under_3.5 | 52.2% | over_4.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.7% | over_5.5 | 17.3% | under_5.5 | 82.7% |
most
| home | 60.1% | draw | 11.8% | away | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 35.1% | away_+2.5 | 64.9% | home_-0.5 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.9% | home_+0.5 | 71.9% | away_-0.5 | 28.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.0% | away_-2.5 | 11.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.0% | under_2.5 | 30.0% | over_3.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 51.2% | over_4.5 | 29.7% | under_4.5 | 70.3% |
| over_5.5 | 15.8% | under_5.5 | 84.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.5% | under_1.5 | 56.6% | over_2.5 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 81.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.0% | under_1.5 | 37.0% | over_2.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.9% |
most
| home | 26.4% | draw | 20.8% | away | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.9% | away_+1.5 | 88.1% | home_-0.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.6% | home_+0.5 | 47.2% | away_-0.5 | 52.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.3% | away_-1.5 | 31.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 64.4% | under_20.5 | 35.6% | over_22.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 51.1% | over_24.5 | 34.1% | under_24.5 | 65.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 55.7% | under_9.5 | 44.3% | over_11.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.7% | over_13.5 | 16.7% | under_13.5 | 83.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.6% | under_9.5 | 23.4% | over_11.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.2% | over_13.5 | 36.4% | under_13.5 | 63.6% |
most
| home | 30.1% | draw | 7.2% | away | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 13.3% | away_+3.5 | 86.7% | home_-0.5 | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.9% | home_+2.5 | 52.8% | away_-2.5 | 47.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.9% | no | 93.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.4% | no | 95.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 2.6% | no | 97.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Cardiff predictions · Charlton predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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