ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 61.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Cardiff have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded, Charlton 0.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 38.5% for over 2.5 and 65.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Cardiff have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Charlton in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 88.6% | 11.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 18.7% | 81.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.6% | 97.4% |
Team goal lines
67.5%
31.0%
10.5%
66.8%
30.2%
10.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.9% | 92.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 68.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.9% | 89.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Cardiff goals scored per game1.6Cardiff goals conceded per game42.9%Cardiff Over 2.5 rate0.6Cardiff 1st-half goals per game0.9Charlton goals scored per game1.0Charlton goals conceded per game42.9%Charlton Over 2.5 rate0.1Charlton 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
45.8%Both Teams to Score38.5%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 38.5% for three or more goals and 65.9% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Cardiff favoured at 35.4%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Cardiff to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cardiff 1 · 3 draws · Charlton 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cardiff vs Charlton?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 38.5% for Cardiff vs Charlton.
Will there be a first-half goal in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 62.9%.
How often have Cardiff gone over 2.5 recently?
Cardiff have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Charlton in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,257 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| totals_trader v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
| under_specialist v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
