Stoke vs Sheffield United: model prediction
ChampionshipLWWDW
Sheffield UnitedDWLWL
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Stoke or draw
Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.029 <= 0.03.
Win probability · fair 2.70
Top signals
Model read
Expect a tight one: the model splits Stoke and Sheffield United almost evenly, Stoke marginally on top at 37%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Stoke at 41%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Stoke, 0 draws and 5 for Sheffield United at 3.0 goals per match. The run in: Stoke arrive W3 D1 L2, Sheffield United W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
37.1%-3.6%
27.6%+0.7%
35.3%+2.9%
value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.029 <= 0.03.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stoke 0 · 0 draws · Sheffield United 5 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sheffield United71.4%57.1%
71.4%57.1%
28.6%28.6%
League averages this season: 2.74 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.1% | Over 24.5 | 49.4% | Over 26.5 | 37.2% | Over 28.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stoke | 60.4% | Most: Sheffield United | 33.5% | ||||
| Stoke Over 13.2 | 46.9% | Sheffield United Over 13.2 | 28.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.5% | Over 7.5 | 56.9% | Over 8.5 | 44.2% | Over 9.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stoke | 52.5% | Most: Sheffield United | 34.7% | ||||
| Stoke Over 4.2 | 45.8% | Sheffield United Over 4.2 | 33.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.5% | Over 3.5 | 54.4% | Over 4.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Stoke | 36.1% | Most: Sheffield United | 43.0% | ||
| Stoke Over 1.8 | 55.3% | Sheffield United Over 1.8 | 60.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Stoke clean sheet | 27.7% |
|---|---|
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 26.6% |
| Stoke win to nil | 19.7% |
| Sheffield United win to nil | 18.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.1% | draw | 27.6% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 64.7% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.3% | away | 48.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.6% | no | 46.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.8% | away | 26.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 19.7% | away | 18.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.1% | home_by_2 | 11.0% | home_by_3plus | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.5% | away_by_2 | 10.3% | away_by_3plus | 5.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 0-1 | 8.9% | 0-2 | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 3.7% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.0% | under_0.5 | 8.0% | over_1.5 | 74.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.1% | over_2.5 | 48.2% | under_2.5 | 51.8% |
| over_3.5 | 26.5% | under_3.5 | 73.5% | over_4.5 | 12.3% |
| under_4.5 | 87.7% | over_5.5 | 4.9% | under_5.5 | 95.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 73.3% | under_0.5 | 26.7% | over_1.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.9% | over_2.5 | 14.8% | under_2.5 | 85.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.3% | under_0.5 | 27.8% | over_1.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.3% | over_2.5 | 13.9% | under_2.5 | 86.1% |
most
| home | 37.1% | draw | 27.6% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.0% | away_+2.5 | 94.0% | home_-1.5 | 17.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.0% | home_-0.5 | 37.1% | away_+0.5 | 62.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.7% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+1.5 | 84.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.8% | home_+2.5 | 94.6% | away_-2.5 | 5.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.0% | exact_1 | 18.0% | exact_2 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.2% | exact_5 | 7.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.2% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.2% | draw | 39.7% | away | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.5% | under_0.5 | 27.5% | over_1.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.0% | over_2.5 | 14.1% | under_2.5 | 85.9% |
btts
| yes | 22.0% | no | 78.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.5% | exact_1 | 35.5% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.9% | exact_4plus | 4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.5% | draw | 39.6% | away | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.9% | under_0.5 | 27.1% | over_1.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.5% | over_2.5 | 14.4% | under_2.5 | 85.6% |
btts
| yes | 22.3% | no | 77.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.7% | H/D | 7.3% | H/A | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.4% | D/D | 15.7% | D/A | 14.7% |
| A/H | 1.0% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 18.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.6% | under_7.5 | 19.4% | over_8.5 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.3% | over_9.5 | 59.4% | under_9.5 | 40.6% |
| over_10.5 | 47.7% | under_10.5 | 52.3% | over_11.5 | 36.6% |
| under_11.5 | 63.4% | over_12.5 | 26.9% | under_12.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.5% | under_3.5 | 19.5% | over_4.5 | 67.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.8% | over_5.5 | 52.5% | under_5.5 | 47.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.3% | under_3.5 | 35.7% | over_4.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 31.9% | under_5.5 | 68.1% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 10.0% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.2% | away_+3.5 | 71.8% | home_-1.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% | home_+1.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.7% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.1% | under_22.5 | 37.9% | over_24.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.6% | over_26.5 | 37.3% | under_26.5 | 62.7% |
| over_28.5 | 26.5% | under_28.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.9% | under_10.5 | 28.1% | over_12.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.7% | over_14.5 | 38.9% | under_14.5 | 61.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.1% | under_10.5 | 45.9% | over_12.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.1% | over_14.5 | 21.4% | under_14.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 60.4% | draw | 6.0% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.3% | away_+4.5 | 64.7% | home_-2.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.3% | home_-0.5 | 60.4% | away_+0.5 | 39.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+2.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.8% | home_+4.5 | 85.7% | away_-4.5 | 14.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.6% | under_6.5 | 30.5% | over_7.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.1% | over_8.5 | 44.2% | under_8.5 | 55.8% |
| over_9.5 | 32.6% | under_9.5 | 67.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.3% | under_3.5 | 36.7% | over_4.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.2% | over_5.5 | 30.5% | under_5.5 | 69.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.8% | under_3.5 | 49.2% | over_4.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.9% | over_5.5 | 19.5% | under_5.5 | 80.5% |
most
| home | 52.5% | draw | 12.8% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.8% | away_+2.5 | 72.2% | home_-0.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.5% | home_+0.5 | 65.3% | away_-0.5 | 34.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.3% | away_-2.5 | 14.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.5% | under_2.5 | 25.5% | over_3.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.6% | over_4.5 | 34.9% | under_4.5 | 65.1% |
| over_5.5 | 19.8% | under_5.5 | 80.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 55.3% | under_1.5 | 44.7% | over_2.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.3% | under_1.5 | 39.8% | over_2.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.8% |
most
| home | 36.1% | draw | 21.0% | away | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.9% | away_+1.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.9% | home_+0.5 | 57.0% | away_-0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.9% | away_-1.5 | 24.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 60.0% | under_20.5 | 40.0% | over_22.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 55.8% | over_24.5 | 29.8% | under_24.5 | 70.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 67.1% | under_9.5 | 32.9% | over_11.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.8% | over_13.5 | 25.9% | under_13.5 | 74.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.1% | under_9.5 | 38.9% | over_11.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.3% | over_13.5 | 20.6% | under_13.5 | 79.4% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 7.9% | away | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.0% | away_+3.5 | 72.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.3% | home_+2.5 | 73.1% | away_-2.5 | 26.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 17.2% | no | 82.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.9% | no | 90.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Stoke predictions · Sheffield United predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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