ChampionshipPortsmouth vs Blackburn Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 63.4% for over 22.5 to 27.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. On the shot count, Portsmouth are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.4%, with a level count at 5.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.6% | 72.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.4%
59.7%
43.3%
51.2%
33.2%
19.2%
Shot handicap
| Portsmouth line | Portsmouth | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| -2.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| -0.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| +0.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.8Portsmouth shots per game11.8Portsmouth shots faced per game12.1Blackburn shots per game15.4Blackburn shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Portsmouth.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
50.9%Over 24.5 shots59.7%Portsmouth over 12.5 shots33.2%Blackburn over 12.5 shots50.6%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Portsmouth over 12.5 shots sits at 59.7% and Blackburn at 33.2%. This season Portsmouth have averaged 14.8 shots a game and Blackburn 12.1.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 50.9% for Portsmouth vs Blackburn.
Which team will have more shots in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates Portsmouth to take more shots at 65.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
