QPR vs Preston prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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QPR vs Preston: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 19 Sep 2026

Championship
QPR

WWLDD

Sat, 19 Sep 202615:00UK
Preston

LLWLL

Model’s top convictions

76%

QPR or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Model pick

QPR49.1%

Win probability · fair 2.04

Top signals

QPR or drawVery likely75.6%Fair 1.32
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.1%Fair 1.56

Model read

QPR versus Preston on 19 September 2026 tilts towards QPR in our numbers (49%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing QPR at 57%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Form guide over the last six: QPR W2 D3 L1, Preston W1 D0 L5. The recent series reads 3 wins for QPR, 2 draws and 0 for Preston over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Value & higher-risk angles

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.8%@ 2.34
Over 11.5 corners33.2%@ 3.01
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Under 2.5 goals51.8%@ 1.93
Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.92
1-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.07
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.62

Model vs market

QPR

49.1%-7.6%

Draw

26.5%+2.1%

Preston

24.4%+5.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19)

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.2%Fair 2.07
BTTS · YesClose call51.6%Fair 1.94

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely64.1%Fair 1.56
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.3%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.8%Fair 2.34
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.2%Fair 3.01
Most cornersQPR61.3%Preston28.6%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely64.6%Fair 1.55
Over 24.5 shotsClose call52.2%Fair 1.92
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.8%Fair 2.51
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.7%Fair 3.49

Recent shot volume

QPR15.3 taken10.0 faced
Preston13.3 taken13.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.9%2.548.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.19).

Form & head-to-head

QPRWWLDD
PrestonLLWLL

Last 5 meetings: QPR 3 · 2 draws · Preston 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-04-06Preston 1-1 QPR
2025-08-09QPR 1-1 Preston
2025-04-18Preston 1-2 QPR
2024-12-21QPR 2-1 Preston
2024-04-20QPR 1-0 Preston

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

QPRPreston
League position#8 of 27#23 of 27
Record W-D-L3-3-11-0-6
Current streakD2L2
Points per game1.710.43
Record, home vs away1-1-10-0-3
PPG, home vs away1.330.00
Goals scored per game1.140.86
Goals conceded per game0.711.86
Scored, home vs away0.670.67
Conceded, home vs away0.671.67
1st half goals per game0.710.43
2nd half goals per game0.430.43
Corners won per game6.45.6
Cards per game1.62.4
Fouls per game8.911.9
Red cards this season00
Shots per game15.012.9
Shots faced per game11.013.4
Shots on target per game5.13.1
Over 2.5 rate

42.9%71.4%

BTTS rate

57.1%71.4%

Clean sheets

28.6%0.0%

Rates this season:QPRPreston

League averages this season: 2.74 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
QPR win1.682.04
Draw3.753.77
Preston win4.754.10
Over 2.5 goals1.802.07
Under 2.5 goals2.001.93

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

QPR win2.04
Draw3.78
Preston win4.10
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.08
Over 3.5 goals3.79
QPR most2.04
Preston most4.10

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.82
Over 10.5 corners2.32
QPR most1.63
Preston most3.49

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.14
Over 4.5 cards3.60
Over 5.5 cards6.92
QPR most3.99
Preston most1.85

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.09
Over 9.5 SoT2.77
QPR most1.75
Preston most3.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.51
Over 28.5 shots3.49
QPR most1.51
Preston most3.55

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.98
Over 22.5 fouls2.88
Over 24.5 fouls4.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 64.6% Over 24.5 52.1% Over 26.5 39.8% Over 28.5 28.7%
Most: QPR 66.2% Most: Preston 28.2%
QPR Over 13.2 52.9% Preston Over 13.2 25.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.5% Over 7.5 60.4% Over 8.5 47.9% Over 9.5 36.1%
Most: QPR 57.0% Most: Preston 30.9%
QPR Over 4.2 51.4% Preston Over 4.2 32.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.2% Over 3.5 46.7% Over 4.5 27.8%
Most: QPR 25.0% Most: Preston 54.1%
QPR Over 1.8 40.7% Preston Over 1.8 62.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

QPR clean sheet 35.4%
Preston clean sheet 20.8%
QPR win to nil 27.4%
Preston win to nil 12.8%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.1% draw 26.5% away 24.4%
double_chance
1X 75.6% 12 73.5% X2 50.9%
dnb
home 66.8% away 33.2%
btts
yes 51.6% no 48.4%
clean_sheet
home 35.6% away 20.9%
win_to_nil
home 27.6% away 12.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.4% home_by_2 15.2% home_by_3plus 10.6%
away_by_1 15.2% away_by_2 6.6% away_by_3plus 2.6%
correct_score
0-0 8.0% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.0% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.1% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.1% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.8% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 1.9% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.0% under_0.5 8.0% over_1.5 73.9%
under_1.5 26.1% over_2.5 48.2% under_2.5 51.8%
over_3.5 26.4% under_3.5 73.6% over_4.5 12.3%
under_4.5 87.7% over_5.5 4.9% under_5.5 95.1%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 79.1% under_0.5 20.9% over_1.5 46.4%
under_1.5 53.6% over_2.5 20.8% under_2.5 79.2%
team_away
over_0.5 64.4% under_0.5 35.6% over_1.5 27.7%
under_1.5 72.4% over_2.5 8.6% under_2.5 91.4%
most
home 49.1% draw 26.5% away 24.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.6% away_+2.5 89.4% home_-1.5 25.8%
away_+1.5 74.3% home_-0.5 49.1% away_+0.5 50.9%
home_+0.5 75.6% away_-0.5 24.4% home_+1.5 90.8%
away_-1.5 9.2% home_+2.5 97.4% away_-2.5 2.6%
total_exact
exact_0 8.0% exact_1 18.1% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.1% exact_5 7.4%
exact_6 3.2% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 41.6% away 25.6%
total
over_0.5 70.3% under_0.5 29.7% over_1.5 34.2%
under_1.5 65.8% over_2.5 12.3% under_2.5 87.7%
btts
yes 20.5% no 79.5%
total_exact
exact_0 29.7% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.9%
exact_3 8.8% exact_4plus 3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.3% draw 37.4% away 19.4%
total
over_0.5 74.8% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.1%
under_1.5 59.9% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
btts
yes 22.8% no 77.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.9% H/D 3.9% H/A 1.0%
D/H 18.0% D/D 15.6% D/A 8.1%
A/H 3.3% A/D 6.0% A/A 16.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.4% under_7.5 22.6% over_8.5 66.7%
under_8.5 33.3% over_9.5 54.9% under_9.5 45.1%
over_10.5 43.1% under_10.5 56.9% over_11.5 32.3%
under_11.5 67.7% over_12.5 23.1% under_12.5 76.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 80.0% under_3.5 20.0% over_4.5 66.4%
under_4.5 33.6% over_5.5 51.6% under_5.5 48.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.2% under_3.5 40.8% over_4.5 41.7%
under_4.5 58.4% over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 61.4% draw 10.0% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.0% away_+3.5 70.0% home_-1.5 50.7%
away_+1.5 49.3% home_-0.5 61.4% away_+0.5 38.6%
home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6% home_+1.5 79.9%
away_-1.5 20.1% home_+3.5 91.7% away_-3.5 8.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.6% under_22.5 35.4% over_24.5 52.2%
under_24.5 47.9% over_26.5 39.8% under_26.5 60.2%
over_28.5 28.7% under_28.5 71.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.6% under_10.5 23.4% over_12.5 61.1%
under_12.5 38.9% over_14.5 44.8% under_14.5 55.2%
team_away
over_10.5 51.4% under_10.5 48.6% over_12.5 33.4%
under_12.5 66.6% over_14.5 19.4% under_14.5 80.6%
most
home 66.2% draw 5.6% away 28.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 53.9%
away_+2.5 46.1% home_-0.5 66.2% away_+0.5 33.8%
home_+0.5 71.8% away_-0.5 28.2% home_+2.5 81.5%
away_-2.5 18.5% home_+4.5 88.8% away_-4.5 11.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.5% under_6.5 27.5% over_7.5 60.4%
under_7.5 39.6% over_8.5 47.9% under_8.5 52.1%
over_9.5 36.1% under_9.5 63.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.2% under_3.5 31.9% over_4.5 51.4%
under_4.5 48.6% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
team_away
over_3.5 50.1% under_3.5 49.9% over_4.5 32.4%
under_4.5 67.6% over_5.5 19.0% under_5.5 81.0%
most
home 57.0% draw 12.2% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.2% away_+2.5 67.8% home_-0.5 57.0%
away_+0.5 43.0% home_+0.5 69.2% away_-0.5 30.9%
home_+2.5 87.4% away_-2.5 12.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.2% under_2.5 31.8% over_3.5 46.7%
under_3.5 53.3% over_4.5 27.8% under_4.5 72.2%
over_5.5 14.5% under_5.5 85.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 40.7% under_1.5 59.3% over_2.5 16.6%
under_2.5 83.4%
team_away
over_1.5 62.6% under_1.5 37.5% over_2.5 35.6%
under_2.5 64.4%
most
home 25.0% draw 20.9% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.9% away_+1.5 89.1% home_-0.5 25.0%
away_+0.5 75.0% home_+0.5 45.9% away_-0.5 54.1%
home_+1.5 67.4% away_-1.5 32.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 50.4% under_20.5 49.6% over_22.5 34.8%
under_22.5 65.3% over_24.5 21.8% under_24.5 78.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.4% under_9.5 48.6% over_11.5 29.4%
under_11.5 70.6% over_13.5 13.9% under_13.5 86.1%
team_away
over_9.5 63.6% under_9.5 36.4% over_11.5 41.3%
under_11.5 58.7% over_13.5 22.6% under_13.5 77.4%
most
home 37.2% draw 8.0% away 54.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.3% away_+3.5 82.8% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+2.5 61.5% away_-2.5 38.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 4.8% no 95.2%
home
yes 0.6% no 99.4%
away
yes 4.2% no 95.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: QPR predictions · Preston predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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