Lincoln vs Swansea: model prediction
ChampionshipWDDWW
WWDLW
Draw or Swansea
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Win probability · fair 2.23
Top signals
Model read
Our engine prices Swansea at 45% for 19 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Swansea than the market (38%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. • Fatigue may matter, with Lincoln 4 days shorter on recovery than Swansea. As a promoted side, Lincoln carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • The run in: Lincoln arrive W3 D2 L1, Swansea W3 D2 L1. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
27.5%-6.4%
27.6%-0.3%
44.9%+6.7%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
25.0%57.1%
37.5%42.9%
62.5%57.1%
League averages this season: 2.74 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 63.8% | Over 24.5 | 51.3% | Over 26.5 | 39.0% | Over 28.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lincoln | 61.2% | Most: Swansea | 32.8% | ||||
| Lincoln Over 13.2 | 48.7% | Swansea Over 13.2 | 28.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 70.4% | Over 7.5 | 58.0% | Over 8.5 | 45.3% | Over 9.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lincoln | 48.8% | Most: Swansea | 38.3% | ||||
| Lincoln Over 4.2 | 44.0% | Swansea Over 4.2 | 36.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.6% | Over 3.5 | 50.8% | Over 4.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Lincoln | 37.7% | Most: Swansea | 40.7% | ||
| Lincoln Over 1.8 | 54.2% | Swansea Over 1.8 | 56.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Lincoln clean sheet | 23.6% |
|---|---|
| Swansea clean sheet | 34.0% |
| Lincoln win to nil | 14.9% |
| Swansea win to nil | 25.3% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 27.5% | draw | 27.6% | away | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 55.1% | 12 | 72.4% | X2 | 72.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 38.0% | away | 62.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.9% | no | 49.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 23.7% | away | 34.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.0% | away | 25.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 16.8% | home_by_2 | 7.6% | home_by_3plus | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.7% | away_by_2 | 13.7% | away_by_3plus | 8.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.7% | 0-1 | 11.0% | 0-2 | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.0% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-3 | 4.3% | 1-4 | 1.6% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 4.7% | 2-1 | 6.7% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 1.7% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.3% | under_0.5 | 8.7% | over_1.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.8% | over_2.5 | 46.0% | under_2.5 | 54.0% |
| over_3.5 | 24.6% | under_3.5 | 75.4% | over_4.5 | 11.1% |
| under_4.5 | 88.9% | over_5.5 | 4.3% | under_5.5 | 95.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 65.9% | under_0.5 | 34.2% | over_1.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.8% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.7% | over_1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.8% | over_2.5 | 17.7% | under_2.5 | 82.3% |
most
| home | 27.5% | draw | 27.6% | away | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.2% | away_+2.5 | 96.8% | home_-1.5 | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.2% | home_-0.5 | 27.5% | away_+0.5 | 72.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 55.1% | away_-0.5 | 44.9% | home_+1.5 | 77.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.2% | home_+2.5 | 91.5% | away_-2.5 | 8.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.7% | exact_1 | 19.1% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.4% | exact_4 | 13.5% | exact_5 | 6.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.8% | draw | 49.5% | away | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 59.1% | under_0.5 | 40.9% | over_1.5 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.5% | over_2.5 | 6.2% | under_2.5 | 93.8% |
btts
| yes | 13.0% | no | 87.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 40.9% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.9% | exact_4plus | 1.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 32.5% | draw | 43.1% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.1% | under_0.5 | 32.0% | over_1.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.4% | over_2.5 | 10.8% | under_2.5 | 89.2% |
btts
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.7% | H/D | 4.0% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.1% | D/D | 21.3% | D/A | 12.1% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 5.2% | A/A | 18.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.1% | under_7.5 | 20.9% | over_8.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 31.3% | over_9.5 | 57.2% | under_9.5 | 42.8% |
| over_10.5 | 45.5% | under_10.5 | 54.5% | over_11.5 | 34.5% |
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_12.5 | 25.0% | under_12.5 | 75.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.9% | under_3.5 | 21.1% | over_4.5 | 65.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.0% | over_5.5 | 50.0% | under_5.5 | 50.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.0% | under_3.5 | 36.0% | over_4.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.1% | over_5.5 | 31.6% | under_5.5 | 68.4% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 10.2% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.6% | away_+3.5 | 73.4% | home_-1.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.7% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 43.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.3% | away_-0.5 | 32.7% | home_+1.5 | 76.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.6% | home_+3.5 | 89.5% | away_-3.5 | 10.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.8% | under_22.5 | 36.2% | over_24.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.7% | over_26.5 | 39.0% | under_26.5 | 61.0% |
| over_28.5 | 28.0% | under_28.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.4% | under_10.5 | 26.6% | over_12.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.9% | over_14.5 | 40.7% | under_14.5 | 59.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.8% | under_10.5 | 45.2% | over_12.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.4% | over_14.5 | 22.0% | under_14.5 | 78.0% |
most
| home | 61.2% | draw | 6.0% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.2% | away_+4.5 | 63.8% | home_-2.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.4% | home_-0.5 | 61.2% | away_+0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.2% | away_-0.5 | 32.8% | home_+2.5 | 77.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.3% | home_+4.5 | 86.0% | away_-4.5 | 14.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 70.4% | under_6.5 | 29.6% | over_7.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 42.0% | over_8.5 | 45.3% | under_8.5 | 54.7% |
| over_9.5 | 33.6% | under_9.5 | 66.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.6% | under_3.5 | 38.4% | over_4.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.0% | over_5.5 | 28.8% | under_5.5 | 71.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.5% | over_5.5 | 22.3% | under_5.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 48.8% | draw | 12.9% | away | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.9% | away_+2.5 | 75.1% | home_-0.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.2% | home_+0.5 | 61.7% | away_-0.5 | 38.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.8% | away_-2.5 | 17.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.6% | under_2.5 | 28.4% | over_3.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.2% | over_4.5 | 31.4% | under_4.5 | 68.6% |
| over_5.5 | 17.1% | under_5.5 | 82.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.2% | under_1.5 | 45.8% | over_2.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 56.4% | under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.6% |
most
| home | 37.7% | draw | 21.6% | away | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.7% | away_+1.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.3% | home_+0.5 | 59.3% | away_-0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.0% | away_-1.5 | 22.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 64.9% | under_20.5 | 35.1% | over_22.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 50.5% | over_24.5 | 34.7% | under_24.5 | 65.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.1% | under_9.5 | 25.9% | over_11.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.5% | over_13.5 | 33.3% | under_13.5 | 66.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 60.1% | under_9.5 | 39.9% | over_11.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 62.4% | over_13.5 | 19.8% | under_13.5 | 80.2% |
most
| home | 57.3% | draw | 7.5% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 34.3% | away_+3.5 | 65.7% | home_-0.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 42.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.1% | away_-2.5 | 21.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.5% | no | 93.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.6% | no | 98.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Lincoln predictions · Swansea predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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