Millwall vs West Ham: model prediction
ChampionshipLLWLD
West HamDWWWW
Millwall or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 1.68
Top signals
Model read
Millwall go into this Championship meeting with West Ham on 19 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 60%. No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Form guide over the last six: Millwall W2 D1 L3, West Ham W4 D1 L1. Schedule edge: West Ham have had 4 more days of rest than Millwall. West Ham are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
59.7%
23.3%
16.9%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
West Ham85.7%85.7%
42.9%71.4%
42.9%28.6%
League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 64%. Full league tables & stats →
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.1% | Over 24.5 | 49.5% | Over 26.5 | 37.3% | Over 28.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Millwall | 62.7% | Most: West Ham | 31.4% | ||||
| Millwall Over 13.2 | 48.6% | West Ham Over 13.2 | 26.6% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.4% | Over 7.5 | 55.6% | Over 8.5 | 42.9% | Over 9.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Millwall | 55.8% | Most: West Ham | 31.6% | ||||
| Millwall Over 4.2 | 47.1% | West Ham Over 4.2 | 29.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 67.6% | Over 3.5 | 45.9% | Over 4.5 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Millwall | 30.2% | Most: West Ham | 48.0% | ||
| Millwall Over 1.8 | 45.0% | West Ham Over 1.8 | 58.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Millwall clean sheet | 40.8% |
|---|---|
| West Ham clean sheet | 15.6% |
| Millwall win to nil | 33.8% |
| West Ham win to nil | 8.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 59.8% | draw | 23.3% | away | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 83.1% | 12 | 76.7% | X2 | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 77.9% | away | 22.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.1% | no | 49.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 41.3% | away | 15.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.3% | away | 8.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 18.6% | home_by_3plus | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.3% | away_by_2 | 4.2% | away_by_3plus | 1.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 0-1 | 5.2% | 0-2 | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 11.1% | 1-2 | 4.7% |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.1% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 3-1 | 6.1% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.2% | 4-1 | 2.8% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.2% | 5-1 | 1.1% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.0% | under_0.5 | 7.0% | over_1.5 | 76.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.6% | over_2.5 | 51.7% | under_2.5 | 48.3% |
| over_3.5 | 29.5% | under_3.5 | 70.5% | over_4.5 | 14.4% |
| under_4.5 | 85.6% | over_5.5 | 6.0% | under_5.5 | 94.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 84.4% | under_0.5 | 15.6% | over_1.5 | 55.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.6% | over_2.5 | 28.5% | under_2.5 | 71.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 58.7% | under_0.5 | 41.3% | over_1.5 | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.8% | over_2.5 | 6.0% | under_2.5 | 94.0% |
most
| home | 59.8% | draw | 23.3% | away | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.8% | away_+2.5 | 83.2% | home_-1.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 64.6% | home_-0.5 | 59.8% | away_+0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 83.1% | away_-0.5 | 16.9% | home_+1.5 | 94.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.6% | home_+2.5 | 98.6% | away_-2.5 | 1.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.0% | exact_1 | 16.6% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.2% | exact_5 | 8.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.8% | exact_7plus | 2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.3% | draw | 38.7% | away | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.7% | under_0.5 | 25.3% | over_1.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.1% | over_2.5 | 16.0% | under_2.5 | 84.0% |
btts
| yes | 24.6% | no | 75.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.3% | exact_1 | 34.8% | exact_2 | 23.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.0% | exact_4plus | 5.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.5% | draw | 30.4% | away | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 86.1% | under_0.5 | 13.9% | over_1.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 41.3% | over_2.5 | 31.7% | under_2.5 | 68.4% |
btts
| yes | 38.2% | no | 61.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.5% | H/D | 6.9% | H/A | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.9% | D/D | 11.8% | D/A | 17.1% |
| A/H | 1.8% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 22.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 80.4% | under_7.5 | 19.6% | over_8.5 | 70.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 29.5% | over_9.5 | 59.2% | under_9.5 | 40.8% |
| over_10.5 | 47.5% | under_10.5 | 52.5% | over_11.5 | 36.4% |
| under_11.5 | 63.6% | over_12.5 | 26.7% | under_12.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.2% | under_3.5 | 21.8% | over_4.5 | 64.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.0% | over_5.5 | 48.9% | under_5.5 | 51.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.6% | under_3.5 | 32.4% | over_4.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.1% | over_5.5 | 35.4% | under_5.5 | 64.6% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 10.3% | away | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.3% | away_+3.5 | 75.7% | home_-1.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.8% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% | away_+0.5 | 46.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.1% | away_-0.5 | 35.9% | home_+1.5 | 73.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.5% | home_+3.5 | 87.6% | away_-3.5 | 12.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.1% | under_22.5 | 37.9% | over_24.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.5% | over_26.5 | 37.3% | under_26.5 | 62.7% |
| over_28.5 | 26.5% | under_28.5 | 73.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.3% | under_10.5 | 26.7% | over_12.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 43.1% | over_14.5 | 40.5% | under_14.5 | 59.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.3% | under_10.5 | 47.7% | over_12.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.8% | over_14.5 | 20.1% | under_14.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 62.7% | draw | 5.9% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.5% | away_+4.5 | 62.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.9% | home_-0.5 | 62.7% | away_+0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+2.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.0% | home_+4.5 | 87.0% | away_-4.5 | 13.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.4% | under_6.5 | 31.6% | over_7.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.4% | over_8.5 | 42.9% | under_8.5 | 57.1% |
| over_9.5 | 31.4% | under_9.5 | 68.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.4% | under_3.5 | 35.6% | over_4.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.9% | over_5.5 | 31.7% | under_5.5 | 68.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.4% | under_3.5 | 52.6% | over_4.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.2% | over_5.5 | 17.0% | under_5.5 | 83.0% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 12.6% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.4% | away_+2.5 | 69.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.2% | home_+0.5 | 68.4% | away_-0.5 | 31.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.3% | away_-2.5 | 12.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 67.6% | under_2.5 | 32.4% | over_3.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 54.1% | over_4.5 | 27.1% | under_4.5 | 72.9% |
| over_5.5 | 14.0% | under_5.5 | 86.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 45.0% | under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.2% | under_1.5 | 41.8% | over_2.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.8% |
most
| home | 30.2% | draw | 21.8% | away | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.0% | away_+1.5 | 86.0% | home_-0.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.8% | home_+0.5 | 52.1% | away_-0.5 | 47.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.8% | away_-1.5 | 27.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 53.7% | under_20.5 | 46.3% | over_22.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 62.1% | over_24.5 | 24.4% | under_24.5 | 75.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 67.9% | under_9.5 | 32.1% | over_11.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.8% | over_13.5 | 26.7% | under_13.5 | 73.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 51.1% | under_9.5 | 48.9% | over_11.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 70.9% | over_13.5 | 13.7% | under_13.5 | 86.3% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 7.8% | away | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 34.5% | away_+3.5 | 65.5% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.6% | home_+2.5 | 79.5% | away_-2.5 | 20.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.6% | no | 97.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Millwall predictions · West Ham predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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