ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 58.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.4% for over 7.5 to 28.0% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. On the corner count, Cardiff are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 63.7%, with a level count at 9.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
83.4%
71.1%
57.0%
61.1%
43.7%
28.7%
Corner handicap
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| -1.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| -0.5 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| +0.5 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
This season (2026/27)
8.1Cardiff corners won per game4.7Cardiff corners conceded per game4.9Charlton corners won per game6.4Charlton corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Cardiff.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
60.6%Over 9.5 corners71.1%Cardiff over 4.5 corners43.7%Charlton over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Cardiff over 4.5 corners sits at 71.1% and Charlton at 43.7%. This season Cardiff have averaged 8.1 corners won a game and Charlton 4.9.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 60.6% for Cardiff vs Charlton.
Which team will win the corner count in Cardiff vs Charlton?
The model rates Cardiff to win the corner count at 63.7%, with a level count at 9.4%.
How many corners do Cardiff and Charlton average this season?
Cardiff have won 8.1 corners a game this season and Charlton 4.9.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,505 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
