ChampionshipCardiff vs Charlton Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Away at 69.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Cardiff are favoured at 35.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cardiff by 1 | 20.7% |
| Cardiff by 2 | 10.1% |
| Cardiff by 3+ | 4.6% |
| Charlton by 1 | 20.3% |
| Charlton by 2 | 9.7% |
| Charlton by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
Goal handicap
| Cardiff line | Cardiff | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| -0.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| +0.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| +1.5 | 85.9% | 14.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Cardiff goals scored per game1.6Cardiff goals conceded per game0.9Charlton goals scored per game1.0Charlton goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Cardiff or Charlton on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
45.8%Both Teams to Score38.5%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Cardiff are favoured at 35.4%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cardiff 1 · 3 draws · Charlton 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Cardiff vs Charlton?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Cardiff vs Charlton at 69.7%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Cardiff vs Charlton?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Cardiff at 50.8% and Charlton at 49.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,550 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Double Chance actually happened 68.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
