Championship
Burnley vs Derby Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.4% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Head to head on cards, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 54.3%, with a level count at 19.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.6%
21.8%
67.9%
41.5%
Card handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| -0.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| +0.5 | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| +1.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.7% | 68.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Burnley cards per game10.9Burnley fouls per game2.3Derby cards per game13.6Derby fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Burnley vs Derby. The model leans toward Derby for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
55.6%Over 3.5 cards10.7%Any red card47.6%Burnley over 1.5 cards67.9%Derby over 1.5 cards46.3%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Burnley over 1.5 cards sits at 47.6% and Derby at 67.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.7% (Burnley 6.1%, Derby 4.9%). This season Burnley have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Derby 2.3.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.6% for Burnley vs Derby.
Will there be a red card in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates a red card for either side at 10.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates Derby to pick up more cards at 54.3%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
