ChampionshipPortsmouth vs Blackburn Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.4% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. On the card count, Blackburn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 58.3%, with a level count at 18.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
44.4%
19.2%
70.1%
44.2%
Card handicap
| Portsmouth line | Portsmouth | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.1% | 89.9% |
| -0.5 | 22.8% | 77.2% |
| +0.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| +1.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.4% | 70.6% |
This season (2026/27)
0.5Portsmouth cards per game11.0Portsmouth fouls per game3.3Blackburn cards per game10.9Blackburn fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Portsmouth vs Blackburn. Slightly more cards are projected for Blackburn for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.6%Over 3.5 cards7.4%Any red card44.4%Portsmouth over 1.5 cards70.1%Blackburn over 1.5 cards43.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Portsmouth over 1.5 cards sits at 44.4% and Blackburn at 70.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.4% (Portsmouth 3.3%, Blackburn 4.3%). This season Portsmouth have averaged 0.5 cards a game and Blackburn 3.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.6% for Portsmouth vs Blackburn.
Will there be a red card in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Portsmouth vs Blackburn?
The model rates Blackburn to pick up more cards at 58.3%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
