ChampionshipBirmingham vs Middlesbrough Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.6% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. Between the two sides, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 22.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.1%
24.6%
52.7%
26.1%
Card handicap
| Birmingham line | Birmingham | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.3% | 80.8% |
| -0.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| +0.5 | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| +1.5 | 79.1% | 20.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | R Madley | 2 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Birmingham cards per game12.7Birmingham fouls per game1.1Middlesbrough cards per game9.9Middlesbrough fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough. The model leans toward Middlesbrough for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
45.9%Over 3.5 cards8.7%Any red card51.1%Birmingham over 1.5 cards52.7%Middlesbrough over 1.5 cards41.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Birmingham over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Middlesbrough at 52.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.7% (Birmingham 5.5%, Middlesbrough 3.4%). Middlesbrough’s most frequent referee this season, R Madley, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Birmingham have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Middlesbrough 1.1.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.9% for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough.
Will there be a red card in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
The model rates Middlesbrough to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
