ChampionshipStoke vs 
Sheffield United Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.5% for over 2.5 to 19.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Between the two sides, Sheffield United are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.8% | 80.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.3%
28.4%
60.3%
33.2%
Card handicap
| Stoke line | Stoke | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| -0.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| +0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +1.5 | 75.9% | 24.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.8% | 70.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.6Stoke cards per game15.9Stoke fouls per game1.4Sheffield United cards per game11.6Sheffield United fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stoke vs Sheffield United. It tips Sheffield United for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
54.4%Over 3.5 cards17.2%Any red card55.3%Stoke over 1.5 cards60.3%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards44.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Stoke over 1.5 cards sits at 55.3% and Sheffield United at 60.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.2% (Stoke 9.9%, Sheffield United 8.1%). This season Stoke have averaged 2.6 cards a game and Sheffield United 1.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Stoke vs Sheffield United?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Stoke vs Sheffield United.
Will there be a red card in Stoke vs Sheffield United?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stoke vs Sheffield United?
The model rates Sheffield United to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
