ChampionshipMillwall vs 
West Ham Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 45.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.6% for over 2.5 to 14.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.9%. Head to head on cards, West Ham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.0%
19.7%
58.2%
31.2%
Card handicap
| Millwall line | Millwall | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| -0.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| +0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.4% | 75.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Millwall cards per game12.4Millwall fouls per game1.9West Ham cards per game8.9West Ham fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Millwall vs West Ham. It tips West Ham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.9%Over 3.5 cards8.3%Any red card45.0%Millwall over 1.5 cards58.2%West Ham over 1.5 cards37.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Millwall over 1.5 cards sits at 45.0% and West Ham at 58.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.3% (Millwall 2.6%, West Ham 5.9%). This season Millwall have averaged 1.6 cards a game and West Ham 1.9.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Millwall vs West Ham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.9% for Millwall vs West Ham.
Will there be a red card in Millwall vs West Ham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Millwall vs West Ham?
The model rates West Ham to pick up more cards at 47.9%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
