Championship
Burnley vs Derby Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 13.2%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.2% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Burnley have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Derby 0.6 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.4% for over 2.5 and 73.3% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.3 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 0-0 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 0-2 | 6.9% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% |
Score probability grid
| Burnley \ Derby | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Burnley goals, columns = Derby. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.4%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 47.4% for three or more goals and 73.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Derby favoured at 38.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.3 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley vs Derby finished 1-1, exactly the model's most likely scoreline (13.2%).
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Championship, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
