Championship
Burnley vs Derby Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 72.2%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Derby are favoured at 38.8%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.3 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley by 1 | 19.0% |
| Burnley by 2 | 9.7% |
| Burnley by 3+ | 4.8% |
| Derby by 1 | 20.8% |
| Derby by 2 | 11.5% |
| Derby by 3+ | 6.5% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
Goal handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.5% | 85.5% |
| -0.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| +1.5 | 82.0% | 18.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.1Burnley goals scored per game2.3Burnley goals conceded per game0.9Derby goals scored per game1.9Derby goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Burnley or Derby on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Derby are favoured at 38.8%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.3 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Burnley vs Derby?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Burnley vs Derby at 72.2%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Burnley vs Derby?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Burnley at 46.3% and Derby at 53.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
