ChampionshipBristol City vs 
Watford Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 58.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 77.8% for over 2.5 to 23.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.8%. Between the two sides, Watford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.2%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.3% | 76.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.6%
26.0%
68.0%
41.7%
Card handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.4% | 85.6% |
| -0.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| +0.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| +1.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.6% | 72.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Bristol City cards per game11.9Bristol City fouls per game2.6Watford cards per game11.3Watford fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol City vs Watford. It tips Watford for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.8%Over 3.5 cards5.3%Any red card52.6%Bristol City over 1.5 cards68.0%Watford over 1.5 cards41.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Bristol City over 1.5 cards sits at 52.6% and Watford at 68.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.3% (Bristol City 0.8%, Watford 4.6%). This season Bristol City have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Watford 2.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bristol City vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 58.8% for Bristol City vs Watford.
Will there be a red card in Bristol City vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol City vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated Watford to pick up more cards at 51.2%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
