Calibrated model probabilities for every Derby fixture we currently model. We track 2 upcoming matches.
- 3Upcoming fixtures
- 2Modelled upcoming matches
- 51.1%Avg Over 2.5 %
- 54.6%Avg BTTS %
Derby next match
MillwallMillwallDWLDL
DerbyDerbyDDLLDModel estimates
Derby form and stats (2026/27)
Season 2026/27. 12 team matches played, through 2026-10-24.
Derby stats compared with Championship
Season 2026/27. Compare this club with the league average per team, per game. Differences show above or below the average; higher is not always better.
Results and goals
Points per game
Per game
- Derby
- 0.58
- League average
- 1.36
Scale: 0 to 2.0 per game
Difference: -0.78 per game
Over 2.5 goals
Share of matches
- Derby
- 50%
- League average
- 60%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Difference: -10.4 pp
Both teams scored
Share of matches
- Derby
- 58%
- League average
- 63%
Scale: 0 to 100%
Difference: -4.9 pp
All results and goals figures and samples
| Statistic | Team | League avg | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points per gameper game | 0.5812 obs. | 1.36288 obs. | -0.78 |
| Goals scoredper game | 0.8312 obs. | 1.44288 obs. | -0.61 |
| Goals concededper game | 1.7512 obs. | 1.44288 obs. | +0.31 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%12 obs. | 60%288 obs. | -10.4 pp |
| Both teams scored | 58%12 obs. | 63%288 obs. | -4.9 pp |
| Clean sheets | 8%12 obs. | 22%288 obs. | -13.2 pp |
| Failed to score | 33%12 obs. | 22%288 obs. | +11.8 pp |
| First half goals scoredper game | 0.5012 obs. | 0.71288 obs. | -0.21 |
| Second half goals scoredper game | 0.3312 obs. | 0.74288 obs. | -0.41 |
Chance creation
Shots
Per game
- Derby
- 12.6
- League average
- 13.6
Scale: 0 to 16.0 per game
Difference: -1.0 per game
Shots on target
Per game
- Derby
- 3.8
- League average
- 4.3
Scale: 0 to 5.0 per game
Difference: -0.4 per game
All chance creation figures and samples
| Statistic | Team | League avg | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shotsper game | 12.612 obs. | 13.6284 obs. | -1.0 |
| Shots facedper game | 15.112 obs. | 13.6284 obs. | +1.5 |
| Shots on targetper game | 3.812 obs. | 4.3286 obs. | -0.4 |
| Shots on target facedper game | 5.812 obs. | 4.3286 obs. | +1.5 |
| First half shotsper game | 4.412 obs. | 6.1274 obs. | -1.7 |
| Second half shotsper game | 8.212 obs. | 7.5274 obs. | +0.7 |
Corners and discipline
Corners won
Per game
- Derby
- 5.7
- League average
- 5.3
Scale: 0 to 7.0 per game
Difference: +0.4 per game
Fouls committed
Per game
- Derby
- 13.0
- League average
- 11.1
Scale: 0 to 15.0 per game
Difference: +1.9 per game
All corners and discipline figures and samples
| Statistic | Team | League avg | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners wonper game | 5.712 obs. | 5.3286 obs. | +0.4 |
| Corners concededper game | 5.412 obs. | 5.3286 obs. | +0.2 |
| Yellow cardsper game | 2.312 obs. | 2.0276 obs. | +0.4 |
| Fouls committedper game | 13.012 obs. | 11.1288 obs. | +1.9 |
| Fouls sufferedper game | 8.812 obs. | 11.1288 obs. | -2.3 |
Home and away splits
6 home matches · 6 away matches. A blank rate means the observed sample or coverage is insufficient. obs. means observed matches.
| Statistic | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameper game | 0.336 obs. | 0.836 obs. |
| Goals scoredper game | 0.676 obs. | 1.006 obs. |
| Goals concededper game | 1.676 obs. | 1.836 obs. |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%6 obs. | 50%6 obs. |
| Both teams scored | 50%6 obs. | 67%6 obs. |
| Clean sheets | 0%6 obs. | 17%6 obs. |
| Failed to score | 50%6 obs. | 17%6 obs. |
| First half goals scoredper game | 0.506 obs. | 0.506 obs. |
| Second half goals scoredper game | 0.176 obs. | 0.506 obs. |
| Shotsper game | 13.56 obs. | 11.76 obs. |
| Shots facedper game | 14.56 obs. | 15.76 obs. |
| Shots on targetper game | 3.56 obs. | 4.26 obs. |
| Shots on target facedper game | 6.06 obs. | 5.56 obs. |
| First half shotsper game | 4.86 obs. | 4.06 obs. |
| Second half shotsper game | 8.76 obs. | 7.76 obs. |
| Corners wonper game | 6.76 obs. | 4.76 obs. |
| Corners concededper game | 5.36 obs. | 5.56 obs. |
| Yellow cardsper game | 2.26 obs. | 2.56 obs. |
| Fouls committedper game | 11.76 obs. | 14.36 obs. |
| Fouls sufferedper game | 9.06 obs. | 8.76 obs. |
How to read these stats
Overall rates require at least five observed matches; home and away rates require three and at least 60% coverage. Missing values stay blank. obs. gives each statistic’s observed sample; league samples count team appearances. pp means percentage points. These are season observations, not predictions for the next match.
Derby recent results
Verified scores in the published results feed, newest first. Scores are shown from Derby’s perspective.
Published coverage does not include player season totals and current injury reports for this club yet. An absent injury report does not mean a fully fit squad. Verified data appears here when the source provides it.
| Opponent | Date | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | Away | 1-1 | Draw |
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 25 | DWWDW |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 24 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 | WWWLL |
| 4 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 22 | DDWWL |
| 5 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 21 | LLWDW |
| 6 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 21 | LLWWD |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 20 | DWWWL |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 20 | DDWLW |
| 9 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 20 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 18 | LWWDW |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 | LWLWD |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 15 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 | WDLWL |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 14 | LDDLL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 12 | LLLLW |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 | LLLWL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 8 | DWDLL |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 | DDLLD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
Derby predictions
Derby results and match archive
Historical or unresolved fixtures. Final scores are shown only when verified.
Derby fixtures
Linked matches have a full prediction page. Schedule from our fixture feed, refreshed daily; kickoff times can move.
Showing 3 of 3 upcoming team fixtures.
- Sat 31 Oct 2026
- 15:00 UKat Millwall (A)Championship
- Tue 3 Nov 2026
- 19:45 UKvs Norwich (H)Championship
- Fri 6 Nov 2026
- 20:00 UKvs Bolton (H)Championship
Frequently asked questions
How many Derby matches are predicted?
We currently model 2 upcoming fixtures involving Derby. Each links to a full page with the calibrated probabilities behind it.
Are these Derby tips?
No. These are calibration graded model probabilities, not betting advice. Across these 2 matches the model averages 51.1% for Over 2.5 goals.
Where are Derby in the Championship table?
Derby are 23rd in the Championship (2026/27) with 7 points from 12 games (1-4-7), goals 10-21, through 2026-10-24.
Who do Derby play next?
Derby next play Millwall away on Saturday 31 October 2026 in the Championship, according to our fixture feed.
Calibration-graded model probabilities, not tips. See our public track record, including the misses.
