Championship
Burnley vs Derby Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.2% for over 22.5 to 26.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Head to head on shots, Burnley are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.9%, with a level count at 5.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.5% | 73.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.5%
58.5%
42.0%
50.6%
32.6%
18.8%
Shot handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| -2.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| -0.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| +0.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 39.9% | 60.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.6% | 71.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.4Burnley shots per game13.6Burnley shots faced per game11.6Derby shots per game16.6Derby shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Burnley.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
49.6%Over 24.5 shots58.5%Burnley over 12.5 shots32.6%Derby over 12.5 shots52.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Burnley over 12.5 shots sits at 58.5% and Derby at 32.6%. This season Burnley have averaged 14.4 shots a game and Derby 11.6.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 49.6% for Burnley vs Derby.
Which team will have more shots in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates Burnley to take more shots at 64.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
