Championship
Burnley vs Derby Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.9% for over 7.5 to 24.8% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. Between the two sides, Burnley are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.0%, with a level count at 10.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 24.8% | 75.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
80.3%
66.8%
52.0%
61.7%
44.3%
29.2%
Corner handicap
| Burnley line | Burnley | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 29.2% | 70.9% |
| -1.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| +0.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Burnley corners won per game4.0Burnley corners conceded per game6.4Derby corners won per game5.9Derby corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Burnley.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
57.0%Over 9.5 corners66.8%Burnley over 4.5 corners44.3%Derby over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Burnley over 4.5 corners sits at 66.8% and Derby at 44.3%. This season Burnley have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Derby 6.4.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 57.0% for Burnley vs Derby.
Which team will win the corner count in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates Burnley to win the corner count at 60.0%, with a level count at 10.0%.
How many corners do Burnley and Derby average this season?
Burnley have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Derby 6.4.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
