Championship
Burnley vs Derby Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Burnley have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Derby 0.6 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.4% for over 2.5 and 73.3% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.3 goals a game. Burnley have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Derby in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.7% | 95.3% |
Team goal lines
70.7%
34.8%
12.7%
73.9%
38.8%
15.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.9% | 84.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.6% | 83.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.1Burnley goals scored per game2.3Burnley goals conceded per game71.4%Burnley Over 2.5 rate0.4Burnley 1st-half goals per game0.9Derby goals scored per game1.9Derby goals conceded per game71.4%Derby Over 2.5 rate0.6Derby 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.4% for three or more goals and 73.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Derby favoured at 38.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Derby to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.3 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Derby?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 47.4% for Burnley vs Derby.
Will there be a first-half goal in Burnley vs Derby?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.5%.
How often have Burnley gone over 2.5 recently?
Burnley have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Derby in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
