Championship
Burnley vs Derby Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Burnley have averaged 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded, Derby 0.6 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.4% for over 2.5 and 73.3% for at least two goals. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 1.3 goals a game. Burnley have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Derby in 1 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
1.0
2.2
0.6
1.8
Each team to score
By half
This season (2026/27)
100.0%Burnley BTTS rate0.0%Burnley clean sheets
1.1Burnley goals scored per game42.9%Derby BTTS rate14.3%Derby clean sheets0.9Derby goals scored per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
52.8%Both Teams to Score47.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 47.4% for three or more goals and 73.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Derby favoured at 38.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Derby to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.3 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 52.8% for Burnley vs Derby.
Will Burnley score against Derby?
The model rates Burnley to score at 70.7% and Derby to score at 73.9%.
How often have Burnley seen both teams score recently?
Burnley have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5, Derby in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 26,677 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
