Aston VillaAston VillaDLWDW
Manchester CityMan CityWWWWWAston Villa 2-1 Manchester City cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Aston Villa2-1Manchester CityWe called Over 3.5 at 55.5% and it landed (8 in the match). We called No at 91.3% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards55.5%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 279 | 5 |
| Goals | 2.59 | 3.00 |
| Yellow cards | 3.96 | 4.60 |
| Red cards | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| Corners | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| Fouls | 23.0 | 24.0 |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Home wins | 46% | 60% |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Aston Villa vs Manchester City | 2-1 | 3 | Yes | 8 | 0 | 11 | 38 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | 4 | Yes | 4 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fulham vs Manchester United | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 16 | 14 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Tottenham vs Newcastle | 0-2 | 2 | No | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Brighton vs Aston Villa | 4-0 | 4 | No | 5 | 1 | 7 | 23 |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Burnley vs Bournemouth | 0-0 | 0 | No | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Newcastle vs Manchester United | 2-1 | 3 | Yes | 5 | 1 | 6 | 31 |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Leeds vs Manchester City | 0-1 | 1 | No | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Tottenham vs Arsenal | 1-4 | 5 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa vs Brighton | 1-0 | 1 | No | 5 | 0 | 12 | 24 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Aston Villa vs Manchester City. It tips Manchester City for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.6% | 79.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Aston VillaManchester CityTeam cards lines
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Aston Villa's; Manchester City gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.1% | 68.9% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | J Gillett | 2 | 6.0 | 2.5 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Aston Villa at home and Manchester City away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.3% for over 2.5 to 20.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Head to head on cards, Manchester City are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.3%, with a level count at 20.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
By team, Aston Villa over 1.5 cards sits at 51.5% and Manchester City at 64.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.7% (Aston Villa 6.7%, Manchester City 2.2%). Aston Villa’s most frequent referee this season, J Gillett, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Will there be a red card in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Which team will pick up more cards in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
