AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Premier League
ChelseaChelseaDLWWL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:30UK13°C · Cloudy
Manchester UnitedMan UtdLDDDL

Chelsea vs Manchester United cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined61.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined38.2%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards61.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chelsea vs Manchester United. The model leans toward Manchester United for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 79.9% 20.1%
3.5 cards 61.8% 38.2%
4.5 cards 42.4% 57.6%
5.5 cards 25.9% 74.1%

Who picks up more cards

Chelsea
33.3%
Level
19.7%
Manchester United
47.1%

Team cards lines

Chelsea

Over 1.5
58.1%
Over 2.5
31.0%

Manchester United

Over 1.5
67.4%
Over 2.5
41.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Chelsea's; Manchester United gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Chelsea line Chelsea Manchester United
-1.5 17.5% 82.5%
-0.5 33.3% 66.7%
+0.5 52.9% 47.1%
+1.5 71.7% 28.3%

Red card

Any red card24.5%
Chelsea red card21.2%
Manchester United red card4.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.1% 37.9%
22.5 fouls 46.0% 54.0%
24.5 fouls 30.9% 69.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Chelsea C Kavanagh 2 7.0 4.5
Manchester United D England 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

ChelseaChelsea

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Chelsea at home and Manchester United away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Chelsea
Manchester United
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.5

Yellow cards per game
1.9
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
1.0
0.8

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.3

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
12.5%

Matches with card data
3
8
Red cards this season
·
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 61.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.9% for over 2.5 to 25.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 42.4%. Between the two sides, Manchester United are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 19.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Chelsea over 1.5 cards sits at 58.1% and Manchester United at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.5% (Chelsea 21.2%, Manchester United 4.2%). Chelsea’s most frequent referee this season, C Kavanagh, has averaged 7.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

61.8%Over 3.5 cards
24.5%Any red card
47.1%Most cards: Manchester United
58.1%Chelsea over 1.5 cards
67.4%Manchester United over 1.5 cards
46.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherC Kavanagh, Chelsea’s most frequent referee this season, averages 7.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 24.5%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianManchester United are the pick to collect more cards at 47.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
ChelseaChelsea

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Statistic
Chelsea
Manchester United
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
9.9
10.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.8% for Chelsea vs Manchester United.
Will there be a red card in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The model rates a red card for either side at 24.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
The model rates Manchester United to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueChelsea fixtures and statsManchester United fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.