Aston VillaAston VillaDLWDW
Manchester CityMan CityWWWWWAston Villa 2-1 Manchester City correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Aston Villa2-1Manchester CityFinal score 2-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 6.7%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 11.5%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Aston Villa goals, columns = Manchester City goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%.
No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-111.5%
- 1-29.5%
- 0-18.4%
- 0-27.8%
- 2-16.7%
- 2-25.8%
- 1-05.8%
- 0-05.7%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rows: Aston Villa · Columns: Manchester City
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
L
W
D
W
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
W
W
W
W
W
5 wins · 0 draws · 0 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Aston Villa have averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Manchester City 2.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 56.8% for over 2.5 and 80.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 56.8% for three or more goals and 80.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Manchester City favoured at 50.7%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
Aston VillaAston Villa (1)
Nicolas Jackson
Manchester CityManchester City (1)
Erling Haaland
FAQ
What was the score in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
