AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Premier League
CoventryCoventryLWWLL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK11°C · Cloudy
SunderlandSunderlandLLLLD

Coventry vs Sunderland cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Coventry vs Sunderland. The model leans toward Sunderland for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.2% 29.8%
3.5 cards 49.1% 50.9%
4.5 cards 29.9% 70.1%
5.5 cards 16.0% 84.0%

Who picks up more cards

Coventry
29.7%
Level
21.3%
Sunderland
49.1%

Team cards lines

Coventry

Over 1.5
46.6%
Over 2.5
20.9%

Sunderland

Over 1.5
60.9%
Over 2.5
33.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Coventry's; Sunderland gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Coventry line Coventry Sunderland
-1.5 14.0% 86.0%
-0.5 29.7% 70.3%
+0.5 50.9% 49.1%
+1.5 71.5% 28.5%

Red card

Any red card13.3%
Coventry red card8.5%
Sunderland red card5.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.9% 34.1%
22.5 fouls 50.0% 50.0%
24.5 fouls 34.6% 65.4%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sunderland T Bramall 2 3.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

CoventryCoventry

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Coventry at home and Sunderland away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SunderlandSunderland
Statistic
Coventry
Sunderland
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
1.5

Yellow cards per game
1.1
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
20.0%
28.6%

Matches with card data
5
7
Red cards this season
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.2% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Between the two sides, Sunderland are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Coventry over 1.5 cards sits at 46.6% and Sunderland at 60.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.3% (Coventry 8.5%, Sunderland 5.3%). Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, T Bramall, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Coventry have averaged 1.0 cards a game and Sunderland 1.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.1%Over 3.5 cards
13.3%Any red card
49.1%Most cards: Sunderland
46.6%Coventry over 1.5 cards
60.9%Sunderland over 1.5 cards
50.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherT Bramall, Sunderland’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSunderland are the pick to collect more cards at 49.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
CoventryCoventry

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SunderlandSunderland
Statistic
Coventry
Sunderland
cards per game
1.0
1.4

fouls per game
10.8
11.3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Coventry vs Sunderland?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.1% for Coventry vs Sunderland.
Will there be a red card in Coventry vs Sunderland?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Coventry vs Sunderland?
The model rates Sunderland to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueCoventry fixtures and statsSunderland fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.