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BrightonBrightonWWWWLManchester City vs Brighton cards prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards53.8%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Manchester City vs Brighton. It tips Brighton for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Manchester City
BrightonTeam cards lines
Manchester City
Brighton
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Manchester City's; Brighton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Manchester City line | Manchester City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| +0.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| +1.5 | 66.8% | 33.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.5% | 68.5% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Manchester City at home and Brighton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Between the two sides, Brighton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.7%, with a level count at 20.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Manchester City over 1.5 cards sits at 46.7% and Brighton at 66.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.0% (Manchester City 6.5%, Brighton 5.9%).
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Manchester City vs Brighton?
Will there be a red card in Manchester City vs Brighton?
Which team will pick up more cards in Manchester City vs Brighton?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
