Aston VillaAston VillaDLWDW
Manchester CityMan CityWWWWWAston Villa 2-1 Manchester City expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result
Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
xG created per game · Last 6 matches
Result
Aston Villa2-1Manchester CityThe match produced 0.65 xG for Aston Villa and 2.29 xG for Manchester City, against a final score of 2-1. The scoreline and the chances told different stories.
Expected Goals (xG)
Aston Villa have created 1.44 xG and scored 1.17 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Manchester City have created 2.36 xG and scored 2.83 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG.
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
Recent xG per game
Recorded recent matches.
Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
L
W
D
W
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
W
W
W
W
W
5 wins · 0 draws · 0 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Match outlook
The model leans Manchester City to win.
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
Players to watch
Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.
Aston VillaAston Villa (1)
Nicolas Jackson
Manchester CityManchester City (1)
Erling Haaland
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
