AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
Aston VillaAston VillaDLWDW
Full time2-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK9°C · Rain
Manchester CityMan CityWWWWW

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.4%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.6%

Result

Aston Villa2-1Manchester City
11 cornersAston Villa 4, Manchester City 7
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 52.4% and it landed (11 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.4%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Aston Villa.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 74.9% 25.1%
8.5 corners 64.0% 36.0%
9.5 corners 52.4% 47.6%
10.5 corners 41.1% 58.9%
11.5 corners 30.8% 69.2%
12.5 corners 22.1% 77.9%

Who wins the corner count

Aston Villa
46.9%
Level
10.1%
Manchester City
43.0%

Team corners lines

Aston Villa

Over 3.5
69.4%
Over 4.5
54.2%
Over 5.5
39.6%

Manchester City

Over 3.5
66.8%
Over 4.5
51.1%
Over 5.5
36.6%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Aston Villa's; Manchester City gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Aston Villa line Aston Villa Manchester City
-1.5 37.0% 63.0%
-0.5 46.9% 53.1%
+0.5 57.1% 43.0%
+1.5 66.7% 33.3%
Aston VillaAston Villa

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Aston Villa at home and Manchester City away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Manchester CityManchester City
Statistic
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Matches with more corners than the opponent
40.0%
80.0%

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 52.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.9% for over 7.5 to 22.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.4%. Between the two sides, Aston Villa are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 46.9%, with a level count at 10.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Aston Villa over 4.5 corners sits at 54.2% and Manchester City at 51.1%. This season Aston Villa have averaged 3.0 corners won a game and Manchester City 6.2.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.4%Over 9.5 corners
46.9%Most corners: Aston Villa
54.2%Aston Villa over 4.5 corners
51.1%Manchester City over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.4% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAston Villa are the pick to win the corner count at 46.9%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
Aston VillaAston Villa

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Manchester CityManchester City
Statistic
Aston Villa
Manchester City
corners won per game
3.0
6.2

corners conceded per game
4.8
4.2

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 52.4% for Aston Villa vs Manchester City.
Which team will win the corner count in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Before kickoff, the model rated Aston Villa to win the corner count at 46.9%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Aston Villa and Manchester City average this season?
Aston Villa have won 3.0 corners a game this season and Manchester City 6.2.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Corners

Chelsea vs Manchester United corners predictionBournemouth vs Leeds corners predictionBrentford vs Nottingham Forest corners predictionCoventry vs Sunderland corners predictionHull vs Ipswich corners predictionManchester City vs Brighton corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueAston Villa fixtures and statsManchester City fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.