Premier League
Crystal Palace vs 
Nottingham Forest Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.9% for over 2.5 to 15.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. Head to head on cards, Nottingham Forest are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.7% | 84.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.5%
23.3%
57.9%
30.9%
Card handicap
| Crystal Palace line | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| -0.5 | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.1% | 58.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.5% | 72.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Crystal Palace cards per game9.6Crystal Palace fouls per game2.6Nottingham Forest cards per game15.0Nottingham Forest fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest. It tips Nottingham Forest for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.7%Over 3.5 cards6.1%Any red card49.5%Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards57.9%Nottingham Forest over 1.5 cards42.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Crystal Palace over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Nottingham Forest at 57.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.1% (Crystal Palace 4.4%, Nottingham Forest 1.8%). This season Crystal Palace have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Nottingham Forest 2.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.7% for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest.
Will there be a red card in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
The model rates Nottingham Forest to pick up more cards at 44.8%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
