Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Brentford Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 63.7% for over 22.5 to 30.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. On the shot count, Aston Villa are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.0%, with a level count at 5.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.2% | 69.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.5%
57.5%
42.3%
54.3%
37.5%
23.7%
Shot handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| -2.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| -0.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.1% | 60.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
5.2 / 4.6
6.8 / 9.4
This season (2026/27)
9.6Aston Villa shots per game16.2Aston Villa shots faced per game5.2Aston Villa first-half shots4.6Aston Villa second-half shots16.2Brentford shots per game13.4Brentford shots faced per game6.8Brentford first-half shots9.4Brentford second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Aston Villa.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
52.1%Over 24.5 shots57.5%Aston Villa over 12.5 shots37.5%Brentford over 12.5 shots62.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Aston Villa over 12.5 shots sits at 57.5% and Brentford at 37.5%. This season Aston Villa have averaged 9.6 shots a game and Brentford 16.2. Aston Villa take 5.2 shots before half-time and 4.6 after, Brentford 6.8 and 9.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.1% for Aston Villa vs Brentford.
Which team will have more shots in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The model rates Aston Villa to take more shots at 61.0%.
Do Aston Villa shoot more in the first or second half?
Aston Villa average 5.2 shots before half-time and 4.6 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
