Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Brentford Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 73.9%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Aston Villa are favoured at 38.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 1 | 19.5% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 11.3% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 6.9% |
| Brentford by 1 | 19.1% |
| Brentford by 2 | 10.8% |
| Brentford by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Draw | 26.1% |
Goal handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 37.7% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 63.7% | 36.4% |
| +1.5 | 82.8% | 17.2% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Aston Villa goals scored per game1.8Aston Villa goals conceded per game2.0Brentford goals scored per game0.8Brentford goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Aston Villa or Brentford on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
58.9%Both Teams to Score55.0%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Aston Villa are favoured at 38.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 2 · 1 draws · Brentford 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Aston Villa vs Brentford at 73.9%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Aston Villa at 50.9% and Brentford at 49.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
