Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Brentford Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24Aston Villa xG created/game
2.04Aston Villa xG conceded/game2.00Brentford xG created/game1.75Brentford xG conceded/gameRecent xG created & conceded (per game)
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
1.24
2.04
2.00
1.75
Aston Villa have created 1.24 xG and scored 1.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Brentford have created 2.00 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
58.9%Both Teams to Score55.0%Over 2.5 goalsMatch outlook
The model leans Aston Villa to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 2 · 1 draws · Brentford 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
