Eredivisie
Ajax vs Excelsior Rotterdam Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 9.4% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 69.1% for over 2.5 and 87.5% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 3-0 | 8.1% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% |
| 1-0 | 6.9% |
| 4-0 | 5.2% |
| 4-1 | 5.1% |
Score probability grid
| Ajax \ Excelsior Rotterdam | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Ajax goals, columns = Excelsior Rotterdam. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.4%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
58.4%Both Teams to Score69.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 69.1% for three or more goals and 87.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ajax favoured at 71.1%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Ajax vs Excelsior Rotterdam?
The model's most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Excelsior Rotterdam is 2-0 at 9.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
