Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs 
Heerenveen Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 58.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.8% for over 7.5 to 29.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.3%. On the corner count, Sparta Rotterdam are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.9%, with a level count at 9.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.8% | 18.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 72.5% | 27.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.6%
64.1%
49.9%
68.3%
52.7%
38.0%
Corner handicap
| Sparta Rotterdam line | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| -0.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| +0.5 | 62.5% | 37.6% |
| +1.5 | 71.3% | 28.7% |
This season (2026/27)
6.5Sparta Rotterdam corners won per game7.2Sparta Rotterdam corners conceded per game5.0Heerenveen corners won per game6.0Heerenveen corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Sparta Rotterdam.
In-depth analysis
61.7%Over 9.5 corners64.1%Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners52.7%Heerenveen over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners sits at 64.1% and Heerenveen at 52.7%. This season Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 6.5 corners won a game and Heerenveen 5.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 61.7% for Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen.
Which team will win the corner count in Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen?
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam to win the corner count at 52.9%, with a level count at 9.5%.
How many corners do Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen average this season?
Sparta Rotterdam have won 6.5 corners a game this season and Heerenveen 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,505 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
