Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Rennes56.3%
Win probability · fair 1.77
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.8%Fair 1.22
Rennes or drawVery likely78.3%Fair 1.28
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Rennes, that gap is the story." Few Ligue 1 fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Rennes carry a 56% win probability against Auxerre on 11 October 2026. No strong lean on goals (60% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. For shots markets, Esteban Lepaul is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Rennes against W3 D0 L3 for Auxerre. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Rennes, 2 draws and 2 for Auxerre, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Draw or Auxerre43.7%@ 2.29
Over 10.5 corners40.0%@ 2.50
Over 11.5 corners30.8%@ 3.25
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals59.5%@ 1.68
Both teams to score59.2%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.8%@ 9.29
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.20
2-0 correct score8.4%@ 11.92
Model vs market
Rennes
56.3%
Draw
22.0%
Auxerre
21.7%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.8%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Close call59.5%Fair 1.68
BTTS · YesClose call59.2%Fair 1.69
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.2%Fair 1.99
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.0%Fair 2.50
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.8%Fair 3.25
Most cornersRennes55.1%Auxerre34.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.2%Fair 1.51
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.5%Fair 2.41
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.1%Fair 3.32
Recent shot volume
Rennes18.2 taken16.8 faced
Auxerre11.3 taken13.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Rennes (3 games)
8.0 / 11.7
Auxerre (4 games)
5.8 / 6.2
Totals line guide
0.5·1.581.8%2.559.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.8%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
RennesLDWWW
AuxerreWLLLW
Last 5 meetings: Rennes 1 · 2 draws · Auxerre 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Esteban LepaulRennes · key player
To score39.1%2.56
1+ on target60.7%1.65
2+ shots65.3%1.53
Shots/90 2.79SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.62
Theo BairAuxerre · key player
To score6.7%14.93
1+ on target33.9%2.95
2+ shots21.4%4.67
Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.24
Ludovic BlasRennes · in form
To score13.8%7.25
1+ on target45.6%2.19
2+ shots48.7%2.05
Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.22
Remy Labeau LascaryAuxerre · in form
To score17.9%5.59
1+ on target45.7%2.19
2+ shots36.2%2.76
Shots/90 2.45SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.38
Issa SoumaréRennes · in form
To score18.5%5.41
1+ on target52.7%1.90
2+ shots57.5%1.74
Shots/90 2.27SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.24
Romain FaivreAuxerre · in form
To score9.1%10.99
1+ on target35.5%2.82
2+ shots24.2%4.13
Shots/90 1.78SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.18
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Rennes win1.84
Draw4.30
Auxerre win4.43
Both teams to score1.69
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.69
Rennes most1.84
Auxerre most4.43
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Rennes most1.81
Auxerre most2.91
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.35
Over 3.5 cards1.86
Over 4.5 cards2.93
Over 5.5 cards5.21
Rennes most2.88
Auxerre most2.26
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.28
Over 7.5 SoT1.49
Over 8.5 SoT1.81
Over 9.5 SoT2.32
Rennes most1.66
Auxerre most3.55
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.86
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.32
Rennes most1.55
Auxerre most3.35
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.31
Over 22.5 fouls1.58
Over 24.5 fouls2.02
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.2%
Over 24.5
53.8%
Over 26.5
41.5%
Over 28.5
30.1%
Most: Rennes
64.4%
Most: Auxerre
29.8%
Rennes Over 13.2
52.8%
Auxerre Over 13.2
28.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
78.1%
Over 7.5
67.1%
Over 8.5
55.1%
Over 9.5
43.1%
Most: Rennes
60.4%
Most: Auxerre
28.2%
Rennes Over 4.2
58.5%
Auxerre Over 4.2
34.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
73.9%
Over 3.5
53.7%
Over 4.5
34.2%
Most: Rennes
34.7%
Most: Auxerre
44.3%
Rennes Over 1.8
53.8%
Auxerre Over 1.8
60.6%
Rennes: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Esteban Lepaul
2.79
1.17
0.62
60.7%
65.3%
39.1%
Ludovic Blas
2.42
0.9
0.22
45.6%
48.7%
13.8%
Issa Soumaré
2.27
0.88
0.24
52.7%
57.5%
18.5%
Mousa Al Tamari
2.43
0.88
0.2
47.9%
53.7%
13.8%
Arnaud Nordin
2.6
0.84
0.21
36.5%
41.1%
10.7%
Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Theo Bair
3
1.44
0.24
33.9%
21.4%
6.7%
Remy Labeau Lascary
2.45
1.18
0.38
45.7%
36.2%
17.9%
Romain Faivre
1.78
0.83
0.18
35.5%
24.2%
9.1%
Cameron Archer
1.82
0.7
0.29
29.6%
23.2%
13.5%
Danny Namaso
2.16
0.64
0.12
45.2%
60.2%
10.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Rennes clean sheet
30.7%
Auxerre clean sheet
14.8%
Rennes win to nil
25.6%
Auxerre win to nil
9.7%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
54.2%
draw
23.2%
away
22.6%
double_chance
1X
77.5%
12
76.8%
X2
45.8%
dnb
home
70.6%
away
29.4%
btts
yes
59.2%
no
40.8%
clean_sheet
home
31.1%
away
14.8%
win_to_nil
home
26.0%
away
9.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.5%
home_by_2
16.7%
home_by_3plus
15.1%
away_by_1
13.5%
away_by_2
6.2%
away_by_3plus
2.8%
correct_score
0-0
5.1%
0-1
4.9%
0-2
3.1%
0-3
1.2%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
8.3%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
6.0%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
6.3%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.6%
4-1
3.0%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.0%
5-1
1.2%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.5%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.9%
under_0.5
5.1%
over_1.5
81.8%
under_1.5
18.2%
over_2.5
59.5%
under_2.5
40.5%
over_3.5
37.1%
under_3.5
62.9%
over_4.5
19.9%
under_4.5
80.1%
over_5.5
9.3%
under_5.5
90.8%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
85.2%
under_0.5
14.8%
over_1.5
57.0%
under_1.5
43.0%
over_2.5
30.0%
under_2.5
70.0%
team_away
over_0.5
68.9%
under_0.5
31.1%
over_1.5
32.6%
under_1.5
67.4%
over_2.5
11.4%
under_2.5
88.6%
most
home
54.2%
draw
23.2%
away
22.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
15.1%
away_+2.5
84.9%
home_-1.5
31.7%
away_+1.5
68.3%
home_-0.5
54.2%
away_+0.5
45.8%
home_+0.5
77.5%
away_-0.5
22.6%
home_+1.5
91.0%
away_-1.5
9.0%
home_+2.5
97.2%
away_-2.5
2.8%
total_exact
exact_0
5.1%
exact_1
13.1%
exact_2
22.3%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
17.2%
exact_5
10.6%
exact_6
5.5%
exact_7plus
3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
41.7%
draw
36.8%
away
21.5%
total
over_0.5
76.2%
under_0.5
23.8%
over_1.5
42.1%
under_1.5
57.9%
over_2.5
17.5%
under_2.5
82.5%
btts
yes
24.9%
no
75.1%
total_exact
exact_0
23.8%
exact_1
34.2%
exact_2
24.5%
exact_3
11.8%
exact_4plus
5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.2%
draw
33.1%
away
20.7%
total
over_0.5
81.1%
under_0.5
18.9%
over_1.5
49.6%
under_1.5
50.4%
over_2.5
23.4%
under_2.5
76.6%
btts
yes
29.6%
no
70.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
35.6%
H/D
4.6%
H/A
1.5%
D/H
17.0%
D/D
12.2%
D/A
7.6%
A/H
3.4%
A/D
5.1%
A/A
13.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
74.8%
under_7.5
25.2%
over_8.5
63.6%
under_8.5
36.4%
over_9.5
51.6%
under_9.5
48.4%
over_10.5
39.9%
under_10.5
60.1%
over_11.5
29.5%
under_11.5
70.6%
over_12.5
20.7%
under_12.5
79.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.0%
under_3.5
25.0%
over_4.5
60.1%
under_4.5
39.9%
over_5.5
45.0%
under_5.5
55.0%
team_away
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
44.3%
under_4.5
55.7%
over_5.5
29.5%
under_5.5
70.5%
most
home
55.2%
draw
10.5%
away
34.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.9%
away_+3.5
75.1%
home_-1.5
44.4%
away_+1.5
55.6%
home_-0.5
55.2%
away_+0.5
44.8%
home_+0.5
65.6%
away_-0.5
34.4%
home_+1.5
75.0%
away_-1.5
25.0%
home_+3.5
88.8%
away_-3.5
11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.2%
under_22.5
33.8%
over_24.5
53.8%
under_24.5
46.2%
over_26.5
41.5%
under_26.5
58.5%
over_28.5
30.1%
under_28.5
69.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.6%
under_10.5
23.4%
over_12.5
61.1%
under_12.5
38.9%
over_14.5
44.6%
under_14.5
55.4%
team_away
over_10.5
54.2%
under_10.5
45.8%
over_12.5
35.9%
under_12.5
64.1%
over_14.5
21.3%
under_14.5
78.6%
most
home
64.4%
draw
5.7%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.5%
away_+4.5
60.5%
home_-2.5
52.1%
away_+2.5
47.9%
home_-0.5
64.4%
away_+0.5
35.6%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
80.2%
away_-2.5
19.8%
home_+4.5
87.8%
away_-4.5
12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
78.1%
under_6.5
21.9%
over_7.5
67.2%
under_7.5
32.9%
over_8.5
55.1%
under_8.5
44.9%
over_9.5
43.1%
under_9.5
56.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
74.2%
under_3.5
25.9%
over_4.5
58.5%
under_4.5
41.5%
over_5.5
42.7%
under_5.5
57.3%
team_away
over_3.5
52.9%
under_3.5
47.1%
over_4.5
34.9%
under_4.5
65.1%
over_5.5
20.9%
under_5.5
79.1%
most
home
60.4%
draw
11.4%
away
28.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
36.1%
away_+2.5
63.9%
home_-0.5
60.4%
away_+0.5
39.6%
home_+0.5
71.8%
away_-0.5
28.2%
home_+2.5
88.5%
away_-2.5
11.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
73.9%
under_2.5
26.1%
over_3.5
53.7%
under_3.5
46.3%
over_4.5
34.2%
under_4.5
65.8%
over_5.5
19.2%
under_5.5
80.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
53.8%
under_1.5
46.2%
over_2.5
27.0%
under_2.5
73.0%
team_away
over_1.5
60.7%
under_1.5
39.4%
over_2.5
33.6%
under_2.5
66.4%
most
home
34.7%
draw
21.0%
away
44.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.8%
away_+1.5
82.2%
home_-0.5
34.7%
away_+0.5
65.3%
home_+0.5
55.7%
away_-0.5
44.3%
home_+1.5
74.9%
away_-1.5
25.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
76.3%
under_20.5
23.7%
over_22.5
63.5%
under_22.5
36.5%
over_24.5
49.5%
under_24.5
50.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
73.2%
under_9.5
26.8%
over_11.5
53.5%
under_11.5
46.5%
over_13.5
34.2%
under_13.5
65.8%
team_away
over_9.5
76.8%
under_9.5
23.3%
over_11.5
58.1%
under_11.5
41.9%
over_13.5
38.7%
under_13.5
61.3%
most
home
43.2%
draw
7.1%
away
49.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.0%
away_+3.5
76.0%
home_-0.5
43.2%
away_+0.5
56.8%
home_+2.5
64.2%
away_-2.5
35.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
23.6%
no
76.4%
home
yes
6.6%
no
93.4%
away
yes
18.2%
no
81.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Rennes
Auxerre