Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Lille59.3%
Win probability · fair 1.69
Top signals
Lille or drawVery likely83.1%Fair 1.20
Over 1.5 goalsLikely72.0%Fair 1.39
Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.2%Fair 1.72
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Lille at 59% against Le Havre, Ligue 1, 10 October 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. 2) Ethan Mbappé drives the home shot volume, 1.6 on target per 90. 3) The run in: Lille arrive W3 D1 L2, Le Havre W1 D2 L3. The recent series reads 3 wins for Lille, 1 draws and 1 for Le Havre over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners47.4%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals45.9%@ 2.18
Draw or Le Havre40.7%@ 2.45
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals54.1%@ 1.85
Not both teams to score53.7%@ 1.86
Random finds
1-0 correct score13.2%@ 7.60
1-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.47
2-0 correct score11.5%@ 8.69
Model vs market
Lille
59.3%
Draw
23.8%
Le Havre
16.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely72.0%Fair 1.39
Over 2.5Close call45.9%Fair 2.18
BTTS · YesClose call46.3%Fair 2.16
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.2%Fair 1.72
Over 9.5 cornersClose call47.4%Fair 2.11
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.2%Fair 2.69
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.2%Fair 3.55
Most cornersLille56.1%Le Havre33.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.9%Fair 1.59
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.2%Fair 1.99
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.9%Fair 2.64
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.0%Fair 3.71
Recent shot volume
Lille12.7 taken14.5 faced
Le Havre14.2 taken14.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Lille (5 games)
6.8 / 6.2
Le Havre (5 games)
7.8 / 7.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.572.0%2.545.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.0%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
LilleWDWWL
Le HavreLDLDL
Last 5 meetings: Lille 3 · 1 draws · Le Havre 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Ethan MbappéLille · key player
To score12.1%8.26
1+ on target40.2%2.49
2+ shots26.4%3.79
Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.56Goals/90 0.39
Rayan FofanaLe Havre · key player
To score18.2%5.49
1+ on target39.3%2.54
2+ shots40.8%2.45
Shots/90 4.18SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.6
Gaetan PerrinLille · in form
To score20.0%5.00
1+ on target46.2%2.16
2+ shots37.6%2.66
Shots/90 1.88SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.32
Mbwana SamattaLe Havre · in form
To score11.7%8.55
1+ on target52.8%1.89
2+ shots57.6%1.74
Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.18
Olivier GiroudLille · in form
To score20.6%4.85
1+ on target40.2%2.49
2+ shots37.8%2.65
Shots/90 2.22SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.39
Enzo KoffiLe Havre · in form
To score0.0%·
1+ on target18.9%5.29
2+ shots5.4%18.52
Shots/90 1.29SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Lille win1.75
Draw3.97
Le Havre win5.67
Both teams to score2.16
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.18
Over 3.5 goals4.07
Lille most1.75
Le Havre most5.67
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.65
Over 9.5 corners2.07
Over 10.5 corners2.72
Lille most1.78
Le Havre most3.01
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.96
Over 4.5 cards3.14
Over 5.5 cards5.75
Lille most2.60
Le Havre most2.50
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.73
Lille most1.70
Le Havre most3.41
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.59
Over 24.5 shots1.99
Over 26.5 shots2.64
Over 28.5 shots3.71
Lille most1.55
Le Havre most3.35
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.46
Over 24.5 fouls1.82
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.9%
Over 24.5
50.2%
Over 26.5
37.9%
Over 28.5
26.9%
Most: Lille
64.3%
Most: Le Havre
29.8%
Lille Over 13.2
50.2%
Le Havre Over 13.2
25.9%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
73.3%
Over 7.5
61.2%
Over 8.5
48.6%
Over 9.5
36.6%
Most: Lille
58.7%
Most: Le Havre
29.3%
Lille Over 4.2
53.0%
Le Havre Over 4.2
31.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
71.9%
Over 3.5
51.1%
Over 4.5
31.8%
Most: Lille
38.4%
Most: Le Havre
40.0%
Lille Over 1.8
55.0%
Le Havre Over 1.8
56.1%
Lille: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Ethan Mbappé
3.03
1.56
0.39
40.2%
26.4%
12.1%
Gaetan Perrin
1.88
0.89
0.32
46.2%
37.6%
20.0%
Olivier Giroud
2.22
0.87
0.39
40.2%
37.8%
20.6%
Dilane Bakwa
1.82
0.71
0.25
39.3%
36.6%
16.1%
Hákon Haraldsson
1.73
0.66
0.28
42.9%
43.2%
21.2%
Le Havre: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Rayan Fofana
4.18
1.49
0.6
39.3%
40.8%
18.2%
Mbwana Samatta
2.81
1.09
0.18
52.8%
57.6%
11.7%
Enzo Koffi
1.29
0.73
0
18.9%
5.4%
0.0%
Fodé Doucouré
1.45
0.53
0.2
25.0%
18.7%
10.3%
Amir Richardson
1.24
0.43
0.06
19.5%
13.0%
3.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Lille clean sheet
43.5%
Le Havre clean sheet
18.6%
Lille win to nil
34.8%
Le Havre win to nil
9.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
57.2%
draw
25.2%
away
17.6%
double_chance
1X
82.4%
12
74.8%
X2
42.8%
dnb
home
76.4%
away
23.6%
btts
yes
46.3%
no
53.7%
clean_sheet
home
43.9%
away
18.6%
win_to_nil
home
35.1%
away
9.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1
25.1%
home_by_2
17.9%
home_by_3plus
14.2%
away_by_1
12.0%
away_by_2
4.3%
away_by_3plus
1.3%
correct_score
0-0
8.8%
0-1
6.1%
0-2
2.8%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
4.7%
1-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
11.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.7%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.9%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.8%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.3%
under_0.5
8.8%
over_1.5
72.0%
under_1.5
28.0%
over_2.5
45.9%
under_2.5
54.1%
over_3.5
24.5%
under_3.5
75.5%
over_4.5
11.1%
under_4.5
88.9%
over_5.5
4.4%
under_5.5
95.7%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
81.4%
under_0.5
18.6%
over_1.5
50.2%
under_1.5
49.8%
over_2.5
23.9%
under_2.5
76.1%
team_away
over_0.5
56.2%
under_0.5
43.9%
over_1.5
20.1%
under_1.5
79.9%
over_2.5
5.2%
under_2.5
94.8%
most
home
57.2%
draw
25.2%
away
17.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.2%
away_+2.5
85.8%
home_-1.5
32.1%
away_+1.5
67.9%
home_-0.5
57.2%
away_+0.5
42.8%
home_+0.5
82.4%
away_-0.5
17.6%
home_+1.5
94.4%
away_-1.5
5.6%
home_+2.5
98.7%
away_-2.5
1.3%
total_exact
exact_0
8.8%
exact_1
19.3%
exact_2
26.1%
exact_3
21.3%
exact_4
13.4%
exact_5
6.8%
exact_6
2.9%
exact_7plus
1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
39.2%
draw
46.9%
away
13.9%
total
over_0.5
60.6%
under_0.5
39.4%
over_1.5
23.9%
under_1.5
76.1%
over_2.5
6.8%
under_2.5
93.2%
btts
yes
11.7%
no
88.3%
total_exact
exact_0
39.4%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
17.1%
exact_3
5.3%
exact_4plus
1.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.6%
draw
36.3%
away
17.1%
total
over_0.5
75.5%
under_0.5
24.5%
over_1.5
41.1%
under_1.5
58.9%
over_2.5
16.8%
under_2.5
83.2%
btts
yes
22.5%
no
77.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
34.1%
H/D
4.1%
H/A
1.0%
D/H
21.9%
D/D
17.0%
D/A
8.0%
A/H
2.3%
A/D
3.7%
A/A
8.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
72.2%
under_7.5
27.8%
over_8.5
60.6%
under_8.5
39.5%
over_9.5
48.4%
under_9.5
51.6%
over_10.5
36.8%
under_10.5
63.2%
over_11.5
26.7%
under_11.5
73.4%
over_12.5
18.4%
under_12.5
81.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
74.0%
under_3.5
26.0%
over_4.5
58.9%
under_4.5
41.1%
over_5.5
43.7%
under_5.5
56.3%
team_away
over_3.5
58.6%
under_3.5
41.4%
over_4.5
41.3%
under_4.5
58.7%
over_5.5
26.8%
under_5.5
73.2%
most
home
56.2%
draw
10.6%
away
33.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.3%
away_+3.5
74.7%
home_-1.5
45.2%
away_+1.5
54.8%
home_-0.5
56.2%
away_+0.5
43.8%
home_+0.5
66.8%
away_-0.5
33.2%
home_+1.5
76.1%
away_-1.5
23.8%
home_+3.5
89.6%
away_-3.5
10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.9%
under_22.5
37.1%
over_24.5
50.2%
under_24.5
49.8%
over_26.5
37.9%
under_26.5
62.1%
over_28.5
27.0%
under_28.5
73.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
74.6%
under_10.5
25.4%
over_12.5
58.6%
under_12.5
41.4%
over_14.5
42.0%
under_14.5
58.0%
team_away
over_10.5
51.7%
under_10.5
48.3%
over_12.5
33.5%
under_12.5
66.5%
over_14.5
19.4%
under_14.5
80.6%
most
home
64.3%
draw
5.8%
away
29.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.1%
away_+4.5
60.9%
home_-2.5
51.8%
away_+2.5
48.2%
home_-0.5
64.3%
away_+0.5
35.7%
home_+0.5
70.2%
away_-0.5
29.8%
home_+2.5
80.3%
away_-2.5
19.7%
home_+4.5
88.0%
away_-4.5
12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
73.3%
under_6.5
26.7%
over_7.5
61.2%
under_7.5
38.8%
over_8.5
48.6%
under_8.5
51.4%
over_9.5
36.6%
under_9.5
63.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.7%
under_3.5
30.3%
over_4.5
53.0%
under_4.5
47.0%
over_5.5
37.1%
under_5.5
62.9%
team_away
over_3.5
49.5%
under_3.5
50.5%
over_4.5
31.6%
under_4.5
68.4%
over_5.5
18.3%
under_5.5
81.8%
most
home
58.7%
draw
12.0%
away
29.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.6%
away_+2.5
66.4%
home_-0.5
58.7%
away_+0.5
41.3%
home_+0.5
70.7%
away_-0.5
29.3%
home_+2.5
88.4%
away_-2.5
11.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
71.9%
under_2.5
28.1%
over_3.5
51.1%
under_3.5
48.9%
over_4.5
31.8%
under_4.5
68.2%
over_5.5
17.4%
under_5.5
82.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
55.0%
under_1.5
45.0%
over_2.5
28.1%
under_2.5
71.9%
team_away
over_1.5
56.2%
under_1.5
43.9%
over_2.5
29.2%
under_2.5
70.8%
most
home
38.5%
draw
21.5%
away
40.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
20.3%
away_+1.5
79.7%
home_-0.5
38.5%
away_+0.5
61.6%
home_+0.5
60.0%
away_-0.5
40.0%
home_+1.5
78.5%
away_-1.5
21.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
80.2%
under_20.5
19.8%
over_22.5
68.4%
under_22.5
31.6%
over_24.5
54.8%
under_24.5
45.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
73.8%
under_9.5
26.2%
over_11.5
54.2%
under_11.5
45.8%
over_13.5
34.8%
under_13.5
65.1%
team_away
over_9.5
81.5%
under_9.5
18.5%
over_11.5
64.5%
under_11.5
35.5%
over_13.5
45.4%
under_13.5
54.6%
most
home
39.0%
draw
6.9%
away
54.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.0%
away_+3.5
79.0%
home_-0.5
39.0%
away_+0.5
61.0%
home_+2.5
59.8%
away_-2.5
40.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
21.5%
no
78.5%
home
yes
8.9%
no
91.1%
away
yes
13.8%
no
86.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Lille
Le Havre