Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Brest50.6%
Win probability · fair 1.97
Top signals
Brest or drawVery likely76.4%Fair 1.31
Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.7%Fair 1.36
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.1%Fair 1.78
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Brest at 51% for 10 October 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. 2) For shots markets, Noah Edjouma is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. 3) Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Brest against W2 D2 L2 for Angers. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Brest, 1 draws and 1 for Angers at 2.4 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners35.0%@ 2.86
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals52.0%@ 1.92
Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Draw or Angers49.4%@ 2.03
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.92
1-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.04
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.66
Model vs market
Brest
50.6%
Draw
25.7%
Angers
23.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.7%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call48.0%Fair 2.08
BTTS · YesClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.1%Fair 1.78
Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.2%Fair 2.21
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.0%Fair 2.86
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.2%Fair 3.82
Most cornersBrest53.2%Angers35.7%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.8%Fair 1.52
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.4%Fair 1.87
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.0%Fair 2.44
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot29.7%Fair 3.37
Recent shot volume
Brest18.8 taken11.0 faced
Angers13.8 taken16.7 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Brest (5 games)
8.0 / 11.2
Angers (5 games)
6.4 / 8.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.7%2.548.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
BrestDDWLL
AngersLWLDW
Last 5 meetings: Brest 3 · 1 draws · Angers 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Noah EdjoumaBrest · key player
To score7.4%13.51
1+ on target23.6%4.24
2+ shots12.7%7.87
Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.38
Prosper PeterAngers · key player
To score15.4%6.49
1+ on target37.6%2.66
2+ shots19.3%5.18
Shots/90 1.83SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.38
Pathé MboupBrest · in form
To score6.1%16.39
1+ on target42.1%2.38
2+ shots34.2%2.92
Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.13
Amine SbaïAngers · in form
To score12.8%7.81
1+ on target44.9%2.23
2+ shots45.4%2.20
Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.7Goals/90 0.16
Ludovic AjorqueBrest · in form
To score27.7%3.61
1+ on target51.2%1.95
2+ shots55.8%1.79
Shots/90 1.96SoT/90 0.75Goals/90 0.34
Jim AllevinahAngers · in form
To score5.1%19.61
1+ on target31.0%3.23
2+ shots39.7%2.52
Shots/90 2.1SoT/90 0.57Goals/90 0.08
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Brest win2.04
Draw3.77
Angers win4.09
Both teams to score1.95
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.08
Over 3.5 goals3.80
Brest most2.04
Angers most4.09
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.72
Over 9.5 corners2.18
Over 10.5 corners2.91
Brest most1.88
Angers most2.79
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.56
Over 3.5 cards2.38
Over 4.5 cards4.21
Over 5.5 cards8.55
Brest most2.87
Angers most2.37
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.62
Brest most1.66
Angers most3.56
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.44
Over 28.5 shots3.37
Brest most1.55
Angers most3.35
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.35
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.15
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.8%
Over 24.5
53.4%
Over 26.5
41.0%
Over 28.5
29.7%
Most: Brest
64.4%
Most: Angers
29.9%
Brest Over 13.2
52.4%
Angers Over 13.2
27.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
74.5%
Over 7.5
62.6%
Over 8.5
50.1%
Over 9.5
38.1%
Most: Brest
60.1%
Most: Angers
28.1%
Brest Over 4.2
55.0%
Angers Over 4.2
31.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
64.0%
Over 3.5
41.9%
Over 4.5
23.7%
Most: Brest
34.9%
Most: Angers
42.2%
Brest Over 1.8
46.3%
Angers Over 1.8
51.8%
Brest: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Noah Edjouma
3.04
1.33
0.38
23.6%
12.7%
7.4%
Pathé Mboup
2.51
1.13
0.13
42.1%
34.2%
6.1%
Ludovic Ajorque
1.96
0.75
0.34
51.2%
55.8%
27.7%
Kamory Doumbia
2.02
0.72
0.31
38.5%
39.5%
18.9%
Mama Baldé
3.06
0.59
0.18
23.6%
40.7%
7.9%
Angers: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Prosper Peter
1.83
1.07
0.38
37.6%
19.3%
15.4%
Amine Sbaï
1.8
0.7
0.16
44.9%
45.4%
12.8%
Jim Allevinah
2.1
0.57
0.08
31.0%
39.7%
5.1%
Yassin Belkhdim
0.95
0.39
0.07
25.6%
16.3%
5.2%
Branco van den Boomen
0.9
0.32
0.05
26.1%
21.0%
4.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Brest clean sheet
35.4%
Angers clean sheet
21.0%
Brest win to nil
27.4%
Angers win to nil
12.9%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
49.0%
draw
26.5%
away
24.5%
double_chance
1X
75.5%
12
73.5%
X2
51.0%
dnb
home
66.7%
away
33.3%
btts
yes
51.4%
no
48.6%
clean_sheet
home
35.7%
away
21.1%
win_to_nil
home
27.6%
away
13.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.3%
home_by_2
15.1%
home_by_3plus
10.6%
away_by_1
15.3%
away_by_2
6.6%
away_by_3plus
2.6%
correct_score
0-0
8.1%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
4.0%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
12.6%
1-2
6.2%
1-3
2.1%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
4.8%
2-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.9%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.9%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.6%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
91.9%
under_0.5
8.1%
over_1.5
73.7%
under_1.5
26.3%
over_2.5
48.0%
under_2.5
52.0%
over_3.5
26.3%
under_3.5
73.7%
over_4.5
12.2%
under_4.5
87.8%
over_5.5
4.9%
under_5.5
95.1%
odd_even
odd
48.5%
even
51.5%
team_home
over_0.5
79.0%
under_0.5
21.1%
over_1.5
46.2%
under_1.5
53.8%
over_2.5
20.7%
under_2.5
79.3%
team_away
over_0.5
64.4%
under_0.5
35.7%
over_1.5
27.6%
under_1.5
72.4%
over_2.5
8.6%
under_2.5
91.4%
most
home
49.0%
draw
26.5%
away
24.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
10.6%
away_+2.5
89.4%
home_-1.5
25.7%
away_+1.5
74.3%
home_-0.5
49.0%
away_+0.5
51.0%
home_+0.5
75.5%
away_-0.5
24.5%
home_+1.5
90.8%
away_-1.5
9.2%
home_+2.5
97.4%
away_-2.5
2.6%
total_exact
exact_0
8.1%
exact_1
18.2%
exact_2
25.7%
exact_3
21.7%
exact_4
14.1%
exact_5
7.3%
exact_6
3.2%
exact_7plus
1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
44.3%
draw
37.9%
away
17.8%
total
over_0.5
73.6%
under_0.5
26.4%
over_1.5
38.4%
under_1.5
61.6%
over_2.5
15.0%
under_2.5
85.0%
btts
yes
21.2%
no
78.9%
total_exact
exact_0
26.4%
exact_1
35.2%
exact_2
23.4%
exact_3
10.4%
exact_4plus
4.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.7%
draw
42.5%
away
28.9%
total
over_0.5
69.1%
under_0.5
30.9%
over_1.5
32.8%
under_1.5
67.2%
over_2.5
11.5%
under_2.5
88.5%
btts
yes
19.8%
no
80.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
35.3%
H/D
6.8%
H/A
2.2%
D/H
10.9%
D/D
16.1%
D/A
10.9%
A/H
1.1%
A/D
3.2%
A/A
13.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
70.1%
under_7.5
29.9%
over_8.5
58.1%
under_8.5
41.9%
over_9.5
45.8%
under_9.5
54.2%
over_10.5
34.3%
under_10.5
65.7%
over_11.5
24.5%
under_11.5
75.5%
over_12.5
16.6%
under_12.5
83.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.0%
under_3.5
29.0%
over_4.5
55.3%
under_4.5
44.8%
over_5.5
39.9%
under_5.5
60.1%
team_away
over_3.5
59.2%
under_3.5
40.8%
over_4.5
41.9%
under_4.5
58.1%
over_5.5
27.3%
under_5.5
72.7%
most
home
53.3%
draw
10.9%
away
35.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.6%
away_+3.5
77.4%
home_-1.5
42.2%
away_+1.5
57.8%
home_-0.5
53.3%
away_+0.5
46.7%
home_+0.5
64.2%
away_-0.5
35.8%
home_+1.5
74.1%
away_-1.5
26.0%
home_+3.5
88.5%
away_-3.5
11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.8%
under_22.5
34.2%
over_24.5
53.4%
under_24.5
46.6%
over_26.5
41.0%
under_26.5
59.0%
over_28.5
29.7%
under_28.5
70.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
76.4%
under_10.5
23.6%
over_12.5
60.8%
under_12.5
39.3%
over_14.5
44.3%
under_14.5
55.7%
team_away
over_10.5
53.9%
under_10.5
46.1%
over_12.5
35.6%
under_12.5
64.4%
over_14.5
21.1%
under_14.5
78.9%
most
home
64.4%
draw
5.8%
away
29.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
39.4%
away_+4.5
60.6%
home_-2.5
52.0%
away_+2.5
48.0%
home_-0.5
64.4%
away_+0.5
35.6%
home_+0.5
70.1%
away_-0.5
29.9%
home_+2.5
80.2%
away_-2.5
19.8%
home_+4.5
87.8%
away_-4.5
12.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
74.5%
under_6.5
25.5%
over_7.5
62.6%
under_7.5
37.4%
over_8.5
50.1%
under_8.5
49.9%
over_9.5
38.1%
under_9.5
61.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.4%
under_3.5
28.6%
over_4.5
55.0%
under_4.5
45.0%
over_5.5
39.1%
under_5.5
60.9%
team_away
over_3.5
49.4%
under_3.5
50.6%
over_4.5
31.6%
under_4.5
68.4%
over_5.5
18.2%
under_5.5
81.8%
most
home
60.1%
draw
11.8%
away
28.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
35.1%
away_+2.5
64.9%
home_-0.5
60.1%
away_+0.5
39.9%
home_+0.5
71.9%
away_-0.5
28.1%
home_+2.5
88.9%
away_-2.5
11.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
64.0%
under_2.5
36.0%
over_3.5
41.9%
under_3.5
58.1%
over_4.5
23.7%
under_4.5
76.3%
over_5.5
11.7%
under_5.5
88.3%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
46.3%
under_1.5
53.7%
over_2.5
20.7%
under_2.5
79.3%
team_away
over_1.5
51.8%
under_1.5
48.2%
over_2.5
25.3%
under_2.5
74.7%
most
home
34.8%
draw
22.9%
away
42.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.8%
away_+1.5
83.2%
home_-0.5
34.8%
away_+0.5
65.1%
home_+0.5
57.8%
away_-0.5
42.2%
home_+1.5
77.9%
away_-1.5
22.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
74.2%
under_20.5
25.8%
over_22.5
60.8%
under_22.5
39.2%
over_24.5
46.6%
under_24.5
53.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
76.5%
under_9.5
23.5%
over_11.5
57.8%
under_11.5
42.3%
over_13.5
38.3%
under_13.5
61.7%
team_away
over_9.5
70.2%
under_9.5
29.8%
over_11.5
49.8%
under_11.5
50.2%
over_13.5
30.7%
under_13.5
69.3%
most
home
52.1%
draw
7.1%
away
40.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
31.2%
away_+3.5
68.8%
home_-0.5
52.1%
away_+0.5
47.9%
home_+2.5
72.4%
away_-2.5
27.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
14.9%
no
85.1%
home
yes
8.8%
no
91.2%
away
yes
6.7%
no
93.3%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Brest
Angers