Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Paris SG79.5%
Win probability · fair 1.26
Top signals
Paris SG or drawVery likely91.6%Fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely86.0%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5 goalsLikely66.6%Fair 1.50
Model read
▾
"Paris SG or Le Mans? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Few Ligue 1 fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Paris SG carry a 80% win probability against Le Mans on 10 October 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 67% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. The run in: Paris SG arrive W2 D2 L2, Le Mans W1 D3 L1. Ousmane Dembélé drives the home shot volume, 2.1 on target per 90. Le Mans are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners38.5%@ 2.60
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners59.4%@ 1.68
Both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Over 9.5 corners48.7%@ 2.05
Random finds
2-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.92
3-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.17
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.17
Model vs market
Paris SG
79.5%
Draw
12.1%
Le Mans
8.4%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely86.0%Fair 1.16
Over 2.5Likely66.6%Fair 1.50
BTTS · YesClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.4%Fair 1.68
Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.7%Fair 2.05
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.5%Fair 2.60
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.4%Fair 3.40
Most cornersParis SG60.3%Le Mans29.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.7%Fair 1.50
Over 24.5 shotsClose call54.3%Fair 1.84
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.9%Fair 2.39
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.4%Fair 3.29
Recent shot volume
Paris SG19.2 taken11.2 faced
Le Mans10.4 taken16.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Paris SG (4 games)
9.0 / 12.8
Le Mans (5 games)
6.4 / 3.8
Totals line guide
0.5·1.586.0%2.566.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Ousmane DembéléParis SG · key player
To score42.5%2.35
1+ on target72.3%1.38
2+ shots77.2%1.30
Shots/90 4.59SoT/90 2.09Goals/90 0.9
Habib DialloLe Mans · key player
To score16.2%6.17
1+ on target39.2%2.55
2+ shots43.1%2.32
Shots/90 1.83SoT/90 0.62Goals/90 0.22
Ferrán TorresParis SG · in form
To score36.6%2.73
1+ on target62.6%1.60
2+ shots59.9%1.67
Shots/90 3.45SoT/90 1.68Goals/90 0.78
Djibril SidibeLe Mans · in form
To score4.8%20.83
1+ on target10.2%9.80
2+ shots2.1%47.62
Shots/90 0.27SoT/90 0.13Goals/90 0.06
Khvicha KvaratskheliaParis SG · in form
To score22.8%4.39
1+ on target61.8%1.62
2+ shots68.3%1.46
Shots/90 3.56SoT/90 1.45Goals/90 0.39
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Paris SG win1.31
Draw6.55
Le Mans win11.57
Both teams to score1.95
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.50
Over 3.5 goals2.23
Over 4.5 goals3.83
Paris SG most1.31
Le Mans most11.57
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.01
Over 10.5 corners2.62
Paris SG most1.65
Le Mans most3.40
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.59
Over 3.5 cards2.45
Over 4.5 cards4.39
Over 5.5 cards9.02
Paris SG most2.87
Le Mans most2.38
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.44
Over 8.5 SoT1.73
Over 9.5 SoT2.19
Paris SG most1.53
Le Mans most4.16
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.50
Over 24.5 shots1.84
Over 26.5 shots2.39
Over 28.5 shots3.29
Paris SG most1.43
Le Mans most4.05
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.79
Over 22.5 fouls2.46
Over 24.5 fouls3.66
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
66.7%
Over 24.5
54.3%
Over 26.5
41.9%
Over 28.5
30.4%
Most: Paris SG
70.0%
Most: Le Mans
24.7%
Paris SG Over 13.2
57.1%
Le Mans Over 13.2
24.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
80.0%
Over 7.5
69.5%
Over 8.5
57.7%
Over 9.5
45.8%
Most: Paris SG
65.3%
Most: Le Mans
24.0%
Paris SG Over 4.2
63.4%
Le Mans Over 4.2
32.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
63.0%
Over 3.5
40.8%
Over 4.5
22.8%
Most: Paris SG
34.8%
Most: Le Mans
42.0%
Paris SG Over 1.8
45.5%
Le Mans Over 1.8
50.9%
Paris SG: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Ousmane Dembélé
4.59
2.09
0.9
72.3%
77.2%
42.5%
Ferrán Torres
3.45
1.68
0.78
62.6%
59.9%
36.6%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
3.56
1.45
0.39
61.8%
68.3%
22.8%
Désiré Doué
3.12
1.08
0.37
50.6%
60.4%
21.5%
Nuno Mendes
1.62
0.79
0.18
45.3%
35.0%
12.8%
Le Mans: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Habib Diallo
1.83
0.62
0.22
39.2%
43.1%
16.2%
Djibril Sidibe
0.27
0.13
0.06
10.2%
2.1%
4.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Paris SG clean sheet
42.7%
Le Mans clean sheet
7.2%
Paris SG win to nil
39.1%
Le Mans win to nil
3.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
76.1%
draw
15.3%
away
8.6%
double_chance
1X
91.4%
12
84.7%
X2
23.9%
dnb
home
89.8%
away
10.2%
btts
yes
51.4%
no
48.6%
clean_sheet
home
45.0%
away
7.2%
win_to_nil
home
41.4%
away
3.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
20.9%
home_by_2
21.4%
home_by_3plus
33.8%
away_by_1
6.1%
away_by_2
2.0%
away_by_3plus
0.5%
correct_score
0-0
3.6%
0-1
2.3%
0-2
1.0%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
8.2%
1-1
7.1%
1-2
2.7%
1-3
0.7%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
3.6%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
9.8%
3-1
7.9%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
6.5%
4-1
5.2%
4-2
2.1%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
3.4%
5-1
2.7%
5-2
1.1%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
5.1%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
0.0%
p
11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
96.4%
under_0.5
3.6%
over_1.5
86.0%
under_1.5
14.0%
over_2.5
66.6%
under_2.5
33.4%
over_3.5
44.8%
under_3.5
55.2%
over_4.5
26.1%
under_4.5
73.9%
over_5.5
13.3%
under_5.5
86.7%
odd_even
odd
49.3%
even
50.7%
team_home
over_0.5
92.8%
under_0.5
7.2%
over_1.5
73.9%
under_1.5
26.2%
over_2.5
48.9%
under_2.5
51.1%
team_away
over_0.5
55.0%
under_0.5
45.0%
over_1.5
19.1%
under_1.5
80.9%
over_2.5
4.7%
under_2.5
95.3%
most
home
76.1%
draw
15.3%
away
8.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.8%
away_+2.5
66.2%
home_-1.5
55.2%
away_+1.5
44.8%
home_-0.5
76.1%
away_+0.5
23.9%
home_+0.5
91.4%
away_-0.5
8.6%
home_+1.5
97.5%
away_-1.5
2.5%
home_+2.5
99.5%
away_-2.5
0.5%
total_exact
exact_0
3.6%
exact_1
10.4%
exact_2
19.4%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
18.7%
exact_5
12.8%
exact_6
7.3%
exact_7plus
6.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.9%
draw
32.3%
away
20.8%
total
over_0.5
82.3%
under_0.5
17.7%
over_1.5
51.6%
under_1.5
48.4%
over_2.5
25.1%
under_2.5
74.9%
btts
yes
31.1%
no
68.9%
total_exact
exact_0
17.7%
exact_1
30.7%
exact_2
26.5%
exact_3
15.3%
exact_4plus
9.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
56.5%
draw
29.4%
away
14.1%
total
over_0.5
83.1%
under_0.5
16.9%
over_1.5
53.0%
under_1.5
47.0%
over_2.5
26.3%
under_2.5
73.7%
btts
yes
28.0%
no
72.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
42.7%
H/D
3.4%
H/A
0.9%
D/H
18.2%
D/D
9.5%
D/A
4.6%
A/H
4.6%
A/D
5.3%
A/A
10.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
73.4%
under_7.5
26.6%
over_8.5
61.9%
under_8.5
38.1%
over_9.5
49.9%
under_9.5
50.1%
over_10.5
38.2%
under_10.5
61.8%
over_11.5
27.9%
under_11.5
72.1%
over_12.5
19.5%
under_12.5
80.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.9%
under_3.5
23.1%
over_4.5
62.6%
under_4.5
37.4%
over_5.5
47.7%
under_5.5
52.3%
team_away
over_3.5
56.1%
under_3.5
43.9%
over_4.5
38.8%
under_4.5
61.2%
over_5.5
24.6%
under_5.5
75.4%
most
home
60.5%
draw
10.1%
away
29.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.1%
away_+3.5
70.9%
home_-1.5
49.6%
away_+1.5
50.4%
home_-0.5
60.5%
away_+0.5
39.5%
home_+0.5
70.6%
away_-0.5
29.4%
home_+1.5
79.3%
away_-1.5
20.7%
home_+3.5
91.4%
away_-3.5
8.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
66.7%
under_22.5
33.3%
over_24.5
54.3%
under_24.5
45.7%
over_26.5
41.9%
under_26.5
58.1%
over_28.5
30.4%
under_28.5
69.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.7%
under_10.5
20.3%
over_12.5
65.2%
under_12.5
34.8%
over_14.5
49.0%
under_14.5
51.0%
team_away
over_10.5
49.8%
under_10.5
50.2%
over_12.5
31.8%
under_12.5
68.2%
over_14.5
18.1%
under_14.5
81.9%
most
home
70.0%
draw
5.3%
away
24.7%
handicap
home_-4.5
45.5%
away_+4.5
54.5%
home_-2.5
58.2%
away_+2.5
41.8%
home_-0.5
70.0%
away_+0.5
30.0%
home_+0.5
75.3%
away_-0.5
24.7%
home_+2.5
84.2%
away_-2.5
15.8%
home_+4.5
90.7%
away_-4.5
9.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
80.0%
under_6.5
20.0%
over_7.5
69.5%
under_7.5
30.5%
over_8.5
57.7%
under_8.5
42.3%
over_9.5
45.8%
under_9.5
54.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.0%
under_3.5
22.0%
over_4.5
63.4%
under_4.5
36.6%
over_5.5
47.9%
under_5.5
52.1%
team_away
over_3.5
50.8%
under_3.5
49.2%
over_4.5
32.9%
under_4.5
67.1%
over_5.5
19.3%
under_5.5
80.8%
most
home
65.3%
draw
10.7%
away
24.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
41.3%
away_+2.5
58.8%
home_-0.5
65.3%
away_+0.5
34.7%
home_+0.5
76.0%
away_-0.5
24.0%
home_+2.5
90.8%
away_-2.5
9.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
63.0%
under_2.5
37.0%
over_3.5
40.8%
under_3.5
59.2%
over_4.5
22.8%
under_4.5
77.2%
over_5.5
11.1%
under_5.5
88.9%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
45.5%
under_1.5
54.5%
over_2.5
20.1%
under_2.5
79.9%
team_away
over_1.5
50.9%
under_1.5
49.1%
over_2.5
24.5%
under_2.5
75.5%
most
home
34.8%
draw
23.2%
away
42.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
16.7%
away_+1.5
83.3%
home_-0.5
34.8%
away_+0.5
65.2%
home_+0.5
58.0%
away_-0.5
42.0%
home_+1.5
78.1%
away_-1.5
21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
55.9%
under_20.5
44.2%
over_22.5
40.7%
under_22.5
59.3%
over_24.5
27.3%
under_24.5
72.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
54.9%
under_9.5
45.1%
over_11.5
33.5%
under_11.5
66.5%
over_13.5
17.4%
under_13.5
82.6%
team_away
over_9.5
66.5%
under_9.5
33.5%
over_11.5
45.5%
under_11.5
54.5%
over_13.5
26.9%
under_13.5
73.1%
most
home
37.7%
draw
7.6%
away
54.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
18.5%
away_+3.5
81.5%
home_-0.5
37.7%
away_+0.5
62.3%
home_+2.5
60.6%
away_-2.5
39.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
17.0%
no
83.1%
home
yes
3.2%
no
96.8%
away
yes
14.2%
no
85.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Paris SG
Le Mans