Nice vs Strasbourg prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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Nice vs Strasbourg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Nice

DLDLW

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1014:00UK
Strasbourg

LWWDL

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or Strasbourg

61%

Nice or draw

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Strasbourg39.4%

Win probability · fair 2.54

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely79.1%Fair 1.26
Draw or StrasbourgLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Nice or drawLikely60.6%Fair 1.65

Model read

Little between these two in the data. Strasbourg at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 11 October 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Recent form reads W1 D3 L2 for Nice against W3 D1 L2 for Strasbourg. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Nice, 2 draws and 1 for Strasbourg at 3.4 goals per match. For shots markets, Isak Jansson is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.6%@ 2.15
Strasbourg win39.4%@ 2.54
Over 10.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.0%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners57.4%@ 1.74
Over 2.5 goals55.4%@ 1.81
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.26
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.67
2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.27

Model vs market

Nice

36.1%

Draw

24.5%

Strasbourg

39.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely79.1%Fair 1.26
Over 2.5Close call55.4%Fair 1.81
BTTS · YesClose call59.0%Fair 1.69

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call57.4%Fair 1.74
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.6%Fair 2.15
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely36.4%Fair 2.75
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.5%Fair 3.64
Most cornersNice54.9%Strasbourg34.2%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely66.2%Fair 1.51
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.8%Fair 1.86
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.5%Fair 2.41
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.31

Recent shot volume

Nice13.5 taken13.5 faced
Strasbourg12.2 taken18.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Nice (5 games)

4.4 / 7.4

Strasbourg (5 games)

6.0 / 5.6

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.1%2.555.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.1%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

NiceDLDLW
StrasbourgLWWDL

Last 5 meetings: Nice 2 · 2 draws · Strasbourg 1 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-04-04Strasbourg 3-1 Nice
2026-01-03Nice 1-1 Strasbourg
2025-04-12Strasbourg 2-2 Nice
2024-11-24Nice 2-1 Strasbourg
2024-04-28Strasbourg 1-3 Nice

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NiceStrasbourg
League position#14 of 18#8 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-22-1-2
Current streakW1L1
Points per game1.001.40
Record, home vs away1-2-01-0-2
PPG, home vs away1.671.00
Goals scored per game0.602.00
Goals conceded per game1.202.00
Scored, home vs away1.002.33
Conceded, home vs away0.672.67
1st half goals per game0.400.40
2nd half goals per game0.201.60
Corners won per game5.81.8
Cards per game1.61.8
Fouls per game9.811.8
Red cards this season01
Shots per game11.811.6
Shots faced per game13.017.4
Shots on target per game3.04.8
1st half shots per game4.46.0
2nd half shots per game7.45.6
xG for per game1.091.29
xG against per game1.961.92
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%80.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%0.0%

Rates this season:NiceStrasbourg

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 60% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Isak JanssonNice · key player
To score4.1%24.39
1+ on target34.1%2.93
2+ shots14.5%6.90
Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.14
Conrad HarderStrasbourg · key player
To score11.4%8.77
1+ on target38.5%2.60
2+ shots40.6%2.46
Shots/90 4.36SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.38
Sepe Elye WahiNice · in form
To score16.0%6.25
1+ on target47.9%2.09
2+ shots35.2%2.84
Shots/90 2.49SoT/90 1.31Goals/90 0.35
Samuel Amo-AmeyawStrasbourg · in form
To score13.9%7.19
1+ on target33.0%3.03
2+ shots19.1%5.24
Shots/90 1.98SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.37
Mohammed AmouraNice · in form
To score26.0%3.85
1+ on target52.7%1.90
2+ shots64.7%1.55
Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.37
Sékou MaraStrasbourg · in form
To score7.6%13.16
1+ on target27.4%3.65
2+ shots26.4%3.79
Shots/90 2.28SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.18

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nice win2.82
Draw3.87
Strasbourg win2.58
Both teams to score1.69

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.80
Over 3.5 goals3.02
Nice most2.82
Strasbourg most2.58

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.11
Over 10.5 corners2.79
Nice most1.82
Strasbourg most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.15
Over 4.5 cards3.62
Over 5.5 cards6.97
Nice most2.69
Strasbourg most2.47

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.47
Over 8.5 SoT1.78
Over 9.5 SoT2.27
Nice most2.04
Strasbourg most2.58

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.86
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Nice most1.68
Strasbourg most2.90

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.49
Over 22.5 fouls1.90
Over 24.5 fouls2.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 66.2% Over 24.5 53.8% Over 26.5 41.5% Over 28.5 30.2%
Most: Nice 59.4% Most: Strasbourg 34.5%
Nice Over 13.2 49.3% Strasbourg Over 13.2 31.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.9% Over 7.5 68.1% Over 8.5 56.1% Over 9.5 44.1%
Most: Nice 49.1% Most: Strasbourg 38.7%
Nice Over 4.2 51.7% Strasbourg Over 4.2 44.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.1% Over 3.5 46.5% Over 4.5 27.6%
Most: Nice 37.2% Most: Strasbourg 40.6%
Nice Over 1.8 51.1% Strasbourg Over 1.8 53.6%

Nice: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Isak Jansson 2.26 1.41 0.14 34.1% 14.5% 4.1%
Sepe Elye Wahi 2.49 1.31 0.35 47.9% 35.2% 16.0%
Mohammed Amoura 2.71 0.92 0.37 52.7% 64.7% 26.0%
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol 2.01 0.85 0.21 33.1% 24.6% 9.4%
Mohamed Ali-Cho 1.92 0.73 0.17 38.9% 37.2% 10.9%

Strasbourg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Conrad Harder 4.36 1.52 0.38 38.5% 40.6% 11.4%
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 1.98 0.99 0.37 33.0% 19.1% 13.9%
Sékou Mara 2.28 0.73 0.18 27.4% 26.4% 7.6%
Pape Diop 2.04 0.66 0.06 42.3% 50.6% 4.9%
Sebastian Nanasi 1.32 0.59 0.27 34.9% 25.0% 17.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Nice clean sheet 22.6%
Strasbourg clean sheet 24.3%
Nice win to nil 16.5%
Strasbourg win to nil 18.2%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 35.4% draw 25.8% away 38.8%
double_chance
1X 61.3% 12 74.2% X2 64.6%
dnb
home 47.8% away 52.3%
btts
yes 59.0% no 41.0%
clean_sheet
home 22.7% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 16.6% away 18.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.8% home_by_2 10.5% home_by_3plus 6.2%
away_by_1 19.8% away_by_2 11.7% away_by_3plus 7.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.1% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 3.0% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.2% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.5% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.6% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.9% under_0.5 6.1% over_1.5 79.1%
under_1.5 20.9% over_2.5 55.4% under_2.5 44.6%
over_3.5 33.1% under_3.5 66.9% over_4.5 16.9%
under_4.5 83.1% over_5.5 7.4% under_5.5 92.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.3%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.9% under_2.5 81.1%
most
home 35.4% draw 25.8% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.2% away_+2.5 93.9% home_-1.5 16.7%
away_+1.5 83.3% home_-0.5 35.4% away_+0.5 64.6%
home_+0.5 61.3% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+1.5 81.0%
away_-1.5 19.0% home_+2.5 92.6% away_-2.5 7.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.1% exact_1 14.8% exact_2 23.7%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.2% exact_5 9.4%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 2.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.0% draw 40.5% away 32.5%
total
over_0.5 72.0% under_0.5 28.0% over_1.5 36.3%
under_1.5 63.7% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
btts
yes 22.0% no 78.0%
total_exact
exact_0 28.0% exact_1 35.7% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 9.6% exact_4plus 4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.7% draw 34.6% away 37.6%
total
over_0.5 80.6% under_0.5 19.4% over_1.5 48.7%
under_1.5 51.3% over_2.5 22.7% under_2.5 77.4%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 18.6% H/D 5.5% H/A 2.9%
D/H 11.2% D/D 14.0% D/A 15.2%
A/H 2.1% A/D 5.0% A/A 25.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.5% under_7.5 28.5% over_8.5 59.6%
under_8.5 40.4% over_9.5 47.4% under_9.5 52.6%
over_10.5 35.9% under_10.5 64.1% over_11.5 25.8%
under_11.5 74.2% over_12.5 17.7% under_12.5 82.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.5%
under_4.5 42.5% over_5.5 42.2% under_5.5 57.8%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 41.6%
under_4.5 58.4% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 55.0% draw 10.7% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.2% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-1.5 44.0%
away_+1.5 56.0% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.7% home_+3.5 89.2% away_-3.5 10.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.2% under_22.5 33.8% over_24.5 53.8%
under_24.5 46.2% over_26.5 41.5% under_26.5 58.5%
over_28.5 30.2% under_28.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.0% under_10.5 26.1% over_12.5 57.7%
under_12.5 42.3% over_14.5 41.1% under_14.5 58.9%
team_away
over_10.5 58.0% under_10.5 42.0% over_12.5 39.7%
under_12.5 60.3% over_14.5 24.5% under_14.5 75.5%
most
home 59.4% draw 6.0% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.6% away_+4.5 65.4% home_-2.5 46.9%
away_+2.5 53.2% home_-0.5 59.4% away_+0.5 40.6%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5% home_+2.5 76.3%
away_-2.5 23.7% home_+4.5 84.9% away_-4.5 15.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.9% under_6.5 21.1% over_7.5 68.1%
under_7.5 31.9% over_8.5 56.1% under_8.5 43.9%
over_9.5 44.1% under_9.5 55.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.6% under_3.5 31.4% over_4.5 51.7%
under_4.5 48.3% over_5.5 35.8% under_5.5 64.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.9% under_3.5 38.1% over_4.5 44.2%
under_4.5 55.8% over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
most
home 49.1% draw 12.3% away 38.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.1% away_+2.5 73.9% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+0.5 61.3% away_-0.5 38.7%
home_+2.5 81.7% away_-2.5 18.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.1% under_2.5 31.9% over_3.5 46.5%
under_3.5 53.5% over_4.5 27.6% under_4.5 72.4%
over_5.5 14.4% under_5.5 85.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 24.6%
under_2.5 75.4%
team_away
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.8%
under_2.5 73.2%
most
home 37.2% draw 22.2% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.9% away_+1.5 81.1% home_-0.5 37.2%
away_+0.5 62.8% home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6%
home_+1.5 78.6% away_-1.5 21.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.1% under_20.5 32.9% over_22.5 52.6%
under_22.5 47.4% over_24.5 38.3% under_24.5 61.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 70.9% under_9.5 29.2% over_11.5 50.6%
under_11.5 49.4% over_13.5 31.4% under_13.5 68.6%
team_away
over_9.5 66.2% under_9.5 33.8% over_11.5 45.2%
under_11.5 54.8% over_13.5 26.7% under_13.5 73.3%
most
home 50.1% draw 7.4% away 42.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.9% away_+3.5 71.1% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 49.9% home_+2.5 71.2% away_-2.5 28.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
home
yes 5.1% no 94.9%
away
yes 9.1% no 90.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nice predictions · Strasbourg predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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