Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Monaco49.2%
Win probability · fair 2.03
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely78.3%Fair 1.28
Monaco or drawLikely73.6%Fair 1.36
Both teams to scoreClose call56.8%Fair 1.76
Model read
▾
Monaco versus Toulouse on 10 October 2026 tilts towards Monaco in our numbers (49%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Paris Brunner drives the home shot volume, 1.8 on target per 90. • Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Monaco against W1 D3 L2 for Toulouse. The recent series reads 2 wins for Monaco, 2 draws and 1 for Toulouse over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners35.6%@ 2.81
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners56.6%@ 1.77
Over 2.5 goals54.3%@ 1.84
Draw or Toulouse50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.38
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.59
1-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.07
Model vs market
Monaco
49.2%
Draw
24.3%
Toulouse
26.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.3%Fair 1.28
Over 2.5Close call54.3%Fair 1.84
BTTS · YesClose call56.8%Fair 1.76
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.6%Fair 1.77
Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.7%Fair 2.19
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.6%Fair 2.81
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.7%Fair 3.75
Most cornersMonaco55.9%Toulouse33.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.7%Fair 1.60
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely37.7%Fair 2.65
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.8%Fair 3.73
Recent shot volume
Monaco11.7 taken14.3 faced
Toulouse12.7 taken12.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Monaco (4 games)
6.2 / 4.5
Toulouse (4 games)
8.5 / 6.5
Totals line guide
0.5·1.578.3%2.554.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
MonacoLWWWD
ToulouseDLDLD
Last 5 meetings: Monaco 2 · 2 draws · Toulouse 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Paris BrunnerMonaco · key player
To score28.2%3.55
1+ on target56.6%1.77
2+ shots49.7%2.01
Shots/90 3.52SoT/90 1.76Goals/90 0.7
Santiago HidalgoToulouse · key player
To score11.4%8.77
1+ on target40.3%2.48
2+ shots36.3%2.75
Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.24
Folarin BalogunMonaco · in form
To score34.2%2.92
1+ on target61.2%1.63
2+ shots70.5%1.42
Shots/90 3.3SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.56
Jacen Russell-RoweToulouse · in form
To score10.4%9.62
1+ on target35.9%2.79
2+ shots32.6%3.07
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.22
Mika BierethMonaco · in form
To score26.1%3.83
1+ on target45.0%2.22
2+ shots34.4%2.91
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.58
Casper TengstedtToulouse · in form
To score26.3%3.80
1+ on target38.1%2.62
2+ shots57.0%1.75
Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.47
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Monaco win2.08
Draw3.95
Toulouse win3.75
Both teams to score1.76
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.84
Over 3.5 goals3.12
Monaco most2.08
Toulouse most3.75
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.70
Over 9.5 corners2.15
Over 10.5 corners2.86
Monaco most1.78
Toulouse most3.01
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards2.01
Over 4.5 cards3.29
Over 5.5 cards6.11
Monaco most2.80
Toulouse most2.34
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.63
Monaco most1.89
Toulouse most2.90
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.65
Over 28.5 shots3.73
Monaco most1.63
Toulouse most3.08
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.61
Over 24.5 fouls2.08
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.7%
Over 24.5
50.0%
Over 26.5
37.7%
Over 28.5
26.8%
Most: Monaco
61.5%
Most: Toulouse
32.5%
Monaco Over 13.2
48.0%
Toulouse Over 13.2
27.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
74.4%
Over 7.5
62.5%
Over 8.5
50.0%
Over 9.5
38.0%
Most: Monaco
53.0%
Most: Toulouse
34.5%
Monaco Over 4.2
50.2%
Toulouse Over 4.2
36.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
70.7%
Over 3.5
49.7%
Over 4.5
30.4%
Most: Monaco
35.7%
Most: Toulouse
42.7%
Monaco Over 1.8
51.9%
Toulouse Over 1.8
57.0%
Monaco: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Paris Brunner
3.52
1.76
0.7
56.6%
49.7%
28.2%
Folarin Balogun
3.3
1.27
0.56
61.2%
70.5%
34.2%
Mika Biereth
2.34
1.15
0.58
45.0%
34.4%
26.1%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo
2.47
0.82
0.35
23.5%
19.4%
10.8%
Aleksandr Golovin
1.68
0.81
0.22
46.0%
36.6%
15.4%
Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Santiago Hidalgo
2.51
1.02
0.24
40.3%
36.3%
11.4%
Jacen Russell-Rowe
2.34
0.89
0.22
35.9%
32.6%
10.4%
Casper Tengstedt
2.95
0.74
0.47
38.1%
57.0%
26.3%
Yann Gboho
1.86
0.71
0.22
46.8%
49.2%
17.8%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
0.76
0.2
0.05
17.4%
16.5%
4.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Monaco clean sheet
30.3%
Toulouse clean sheet
19.0%
Monaco win to nil
23.9%
Toulouse win to nil
12.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
48.0%
draw
25.3%
away
26.7%
double_chance
1X
73.3%
12
74.7%
X2
52.0%
dnb
home
64.3%
away
35.7%
btts
yes
56.8%
no
43.2%
clean_sheet
home
30.6%
away
19.1%
win_to_nil
home
24.2%
away
12.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.2%
home_by_2
14.7%
home_by_3plus
11.1%
away_by_1
15.7%
away_by_2
7.5%
away_by_3plus
3.5%
correct_score
0-0
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
0-2
4.1%
0-3
1.6%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
5.6%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
4.4%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.9%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.6%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.6%
under_0.5
6.4%
over_1.5
78.3%
under_1.5
21.8%
over_2.5
54.3%
under_2.5
45.8%
over_3.5
32.0%
under_3.5
68.0%
over_4.5
16.1%
under_4.5
83.9%
over_5.5
7.0%
under_5.5
93.0%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
81.0%
under_0.5
19.1%
over_1.5
49.6%
under_1.5
50.4%
over_2.5
23.5%
under_2.5
76.5%
team_away
over_0.5
69.4%
under_0.5
30.6%
over_1.5
33.2%
under_1.5
66.8%
over_2.5
11.7%
under_2.5
88.3%
most
home
48.0%
draw
25.3%
away
26.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
11.1%
away_+2.5
88.9%
home_-1.5
25.9%
away_+1.5
74.2%
home_-0.5
48.0%
away_+0.5
52.0%
home_+0.5
73.3%
away_-0.5
26.7%
home_+1.5
89.0%
away_-1.5
11.0%
home_+2.5
96.5%
away_-2.5
3.5%
total_exact
exact_0
6.4%
exact_1
15.4%
exact_2
24.0%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
15.9%
exact_5
9.1%
exact_6
4.3%
exact_7plus
2.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
35.9%
draw
41.8%
away
22.3%
total
over_0.5
69.5%
under_0.5
30.5%
over_1.5
33.3%
under_1.5
66.7%
over_2.5
11.8%
under_2.5
88.2%
btts
yes
19.4%
no
80.6%
total_exact
exact_0
30.5%
exact_1
36.2%
exact_2
21.5%
exact_3
8.5%
exact_4plus
3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.6%
draw
31.5%
away
21.9%
total
over_0.5
83.7%
under_0.5
16.3%
over_1.5
54.2%
under_1.5
45.8%
over_2.5
27.4%
under_2.5
72.7%
btts
yes
33.5%
no
66.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
29.9%
H/D
4.4%
H/A
1.6%
D/H
19.5%
D/D
13.2%
D/A
9.2%
A/H
3.8%
A/D
5.2%
A/A
13.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
70.7%
under_7.5
29.3%
over_8.5
58.7%
under_8.5
41.3%
over_9.5
46.4%
under_9.5
53.6%
over_10.5
34.9%
under_10.5
65.1%
over_11.5
25.0%
under_11.5
75.0%
over_12.5
17.1%
under_12.5
82.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.0%
under_3.5
27.1%
over_4.5
57.6%
under_4.5
42.4%
over_5.5
42.3%
under_5.5
57.7%
team_away
over_3.5
57.5%
under_3.5
42.5%
over_4.5
40.1%
under_4.5
59.9%
over_5.5
25.7%
under_5.5
74.3%
most
home
56.1%
draw
10.7%
away
33.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.8%
away_+3.5
75.2%
home_-1.5
44.9%
away_+1.5
55.1%
home_-0.5
56.1%
away_+0.5
44.0%
home_+0.5
66.8%
away_-0.5
33.2%
home_+1.5
76.2%
away_-1.5
23.8%
home_+3.5
89.8%
away_-3.5
10.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.7%
under_22.5
37.3%
over_24.5
50.0%
under_24.5
50.0%
over_26.5
37.7%
under_26.5
62.3%
over_28.5
26.8%
under_28.5
73.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.9%
under_10.5
27.1%
over_12.5
56.5%
under_12.5
43.5%
over_14.5
39.9%
under_14.5
60.1%
team_away
over_10.5
53.8%
under_10.5
46.2%
over_12.5
35.5%
under_12.5
64.5%
over_14.5
21.0%
under_14.5
79.0%
most
home
61.5%
draw
6.0%
away
32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5
36.3%
away_+4.5
63.7%
home_-2.5
48.8%
away_+2.5
51.2%
home_-0.5
61.5%
away_+0.5
38.5%
home_+0.5
67.5%
away_-0.5
32.5%
home_+2.5
78.1%
away_-2.5
21.9%
home_+4.5
86.4%
away_-4.5
13.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
74.4%
under_6.5
25.6%
over_7.5
62.5%
under_7.5
37.5%
over_8.5
50.0%
under_8.5
50.0%
over_9.5
38.0%
under_9.5
62.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
67.3%
under_3.5
32.7%
over_4.5
50.2%
under_4.5
49.8%
over_5.5
34.4%
under_5.5
65.6%
team_away
over_3.5
54.8%
under_3.5
45.2%
over_4.5
36.8%
under_4.5
63.2%
over_5.5
22.4%
under_5.5
77.6%
most
home
53.0%
draw
12.4%
away
34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.8%
away_+2.5
71.2%
home_-0.5
53.0%
away_+0.5
47.0%
home_+0.5
65.5%
away_-0.5
34.5%
home_+2.5
85.0%
away_-2.5
15.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
70.7%
under_2.5
29.3%
over_3.5
49.7%
under_3.5
50.3%
over_4.5
30.4%
under_4.5
69.6%
over_5.5
16.4%
under_5.5
83.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
51.9%
under_1.5
48.1%
over_2.5
25.4%
under_2.5
74.7%
team_away
over_1.5
57.1%
under_1.5
43.0%
over_2.5
30.0%
under_2.5
70.0%
most
home
35.7%
draw
21.7%
away
42.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.1%
away_+1.5
81.9%
home_-0.5
35.7%
away_+0.5
64.3%
home_+0.5
57.3%
away_-0.5
42.7%
home_+1.5
76.6%
away_-1.5
23.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
75.2%
under_20.5
24.8%
over_22.5
62.2%
under_22.5
37.8%
over_24.5
48.0%
under_24.5
52.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
71.2%
under_9.5
28.8%
over_11.5
51.1%
under_11.5
48.9%
over_13.5
31.9%
under_13.5
68.1%
team_away
over_9.5
77.0%
under_9.5
23.0%
over_11.5
58.5%
under_11.5
41.6%
over_13.5
39.1%
under_13.5
60.9%
most
home
41.2%
draw
7.1%
away
51.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.4%
away_+3.5
77.6%
home_-0.5
41.2%
away_+0.5
58.8%
home_+2.5
62.4%
away_-2.5
37.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
16.8%
no
83.2%
home
yes
7.1%
no
92.9%
away
yes
10.5%
no
89.6%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Ligue 1
Monaco
Toulouse