Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.7% for over 7.5 to 17.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.7%. Head to head on corners, Sp Lisbon are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 9.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.6% | 82.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.8%
58.7%
44.7%
51.0%
34.8%
22.2%
Corner handicap
| Sp Lisbon line | Sp Lisbon | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| -1.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| -0.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
This season (2026/27)
5.2Sp Lisbon corners won per game2.7Sp Lisbon corners conceded per game3.0Arouca corners won per game5.5Arouca corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sp Lisbon.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
44.7%Over 9.5 corners58.7%Sp Lisbon over 4.5 corners34.8%Arouca over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Sp Lisbon over 4.5 corners sits at 58.7% and Arouca at 34.8%. This season Sp Lisbon have averaged 5.2 corners won a game and Arouca 3.0.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.7% for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca.
Which team will win the corner count in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates Sp Lisbon to win the corner count at 60.5%, with a level count at 9.8%.
How many corners do Sp Lisbon and Arouca average this season?
Sp Lisbon have won 5.2 corners a game this season and Arouca 3.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
