Primeira Liga
Nacional vs 
Famalicao Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 47.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 71.3% for over 7.5 to 20.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. Head to head on corners, Nacional are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.2%, with a level count at 10.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 71.3% | 28.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 28.7% | 71.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
67.0%
51.9%
37.8%
64.0%
48.5%
34.5%
Corner handicap
| Nacional line | Nacional | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| -0.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| +0.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| +1.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.3Nacional corners won per game4.5Nacional corners conceded per game5.8Famalicao corners won per game3.5Famalicao corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Nacional.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
49.0%Over 9.5 corners51.9%Nacional over 4.5 corners48.5%Famalicao over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Nacional over 4.5 corners sits at 51.9% and Famalicao at 48.5%. This season Nacional have averaged 3.3 corners won a game and Famalicao 5.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.0% for Nacional vs Famalicao.
Which team will win the corner count in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model rates Nacional to win the corner count at 47.2%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Nacional and Famalicao average this season?
Nacional have won 3.3 corners a game this season and Famalicao 5.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
