Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 90.0%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Sp Lisbon are favoured at 73.7%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sp Lisbon by 1 | 21.3% |
| Sp Lisbon by 2 | 21.0% |
| Sp Lisbon by 3+ | 31.4% |
| Arouca by 1 | 6.9% |
| Arouca by 2 | 2.4% |
| Arouca by 3+ | 0.7% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
Goal handicap
| Sp Lisbon line | Sp Lisbon | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| -1.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| -0.5 | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| +0.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Sp Lisbon goals scored per game1.0Sp Lisbon goals conceded per game1.3Arouca goals scored per game0.8Arouca goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Sp Lisbon or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
53.8%Both Teams to Score66.6%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Sp Lisbon are favoured at 73.7%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 4 · 1 draws · Arouca 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca at 90.0%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Sp Lisbon at 88.0% and Arouca at 12.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 1,743 matches we rated like this one (90–100%), Double Chance actually happened 94.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
