Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Sp Lisbon have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Arouca 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.6% for over 2.5 and 86.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Sp Lisbon have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Arouca in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
2.6
0.8
1.4
1.0
Each team to score
By half
This season (2026/27)
66.7%Sp Lisbon BTTS rate33.3%Sp Lisbon clean sheets
2.5Sp Lisbon goals scored per game33.3%Arouca BTTS rate50.0%Arouca clean sheets1.3Arouca goals scored per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
53.8%Both Teams to Score66.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 66.6% for three or more goals and 86.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Sp Lisbon favoured at 73.7%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sp Lisbon to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 4 · 1 draws · Arouca 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 53.8% for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca.
Will Sp Lisbon score against Arouca?
The model rates Sp Lisbon to score at 92.3% and Arouca to score at 57.9%.
How often have Sp Lisbon seen both teams score recently?
Sp Lisbon have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Arouca in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 26,677 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 53.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
