Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 10.6% at 2-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Sp Lisbon have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Arouca 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.6% for over 2.5 and 86.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 3-0 | 9.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
| 3-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
| 4-0 | 5.8% |
| 4-1 | 5.1% |
Score probability grid
| Sp Lisbon \ Arouca | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 9% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Sp Lisbon goals, columns = Arouca. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10.6%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
53.8%Both Teams to Score66.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 66.6% for three or more goals and 86.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Sp Lisbon favoured at 73.7%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 4 · 1 draws · Arouca 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model's most likely scoreline for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca is 2-0 at 10.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
