Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 45.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 57.4% for over 22.5 to 23.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.2%. Head to head on shots, Sp Lisbon are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.2%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.4% | 42.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.8% | 76.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.0%
57.7%
42.1%
43.7%
27.3%
15.4%
Shot handicap
| Sp Lisbon line | Sp Lisbon | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| -2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| -0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| +0.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.0Sp Lisbon shots per game7.5Sp Lisbon shots faced per game10.2Arouca shots per game15.7Arouca shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Sp Lisbon.
In-depth analysis
45.2%Over 24.5 shots57.7%Sp Lisbon over 12.5 shots27.3%Arouca over 12.5 shots61.8%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Sp Lisbon over 12.5 shots sits at 57.7% and Arouca at 27.3%. This season Sp Lisbon have averaged 14.0 shots a game and Arouca 10.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 45.2% for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca.
Which team will have more shots in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates Sp Lisbon to take more shots at 68.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
