Sp Lisbon vs Arouca: model prediction
Primeira Liga
Sp LisbonWWWWD
AroucaWLWDL
Sp Lisbon or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.004 <= 0.
Win probability · fair 1.36
Top signals
Model read
Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Sp Lisbon carry a 74% win probability against Arouca on 19 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Sp Lisbon higher (81%) than our model does. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 67% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. The recent series reads 4 wins for Sp Lisbon, 1 draws and 0 for Arouca over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. Recent form reads W4 D2 L0 for Sp Lisbon against W3 D1 L2 for Arouca. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.004 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
73.7%-7.0%
16.3%+4.1%
10.1%+3.0%
conservative EV -0.004 <= 0
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.004 <= 0.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 4 · 1 draws · Arouca 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sp LisbonArouca66.7%50.0%
66.7%33.3%
33.3%50.0%
League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 57.4% | Over 24.5 | 45.2% | Over 26.5 | 33.7% | Over 28.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sp Lisbon | 68.2% | Most: Arouca | 26.4% | ||||
| Sp Lisbon Over 13.2 | 49.8% | Arouca Over 13.2 | 20.7% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.8% | Over 7.5 | 61.8% | Over 8.5 | 49.2% | Over 9.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sp Lisbon | 71.0% | Most: Arouca | 18.8% | ||||
| Sp Lisbon Over 4.2 | 61.6% | Arouca Over 4.2 | 22.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.9% | Over 3.5 | 72.4% | Over 4.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sp Lisbon | 31.7% | Most: Arouca | 50.2% | ||
| Sp Lisbon Over 1.8 | 64.4% | Arouca Over 1.8 | 75.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Sp Lisbon clean sheet | 40.1% |
|---|---|
| Arouca clean sheet | 7.7% |
| Sp Lisbon win to nil | 36.5% |
| Arouca win to nil | 4.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 73.7% | draw | 16.3% | away | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 89.9% | 12 | 83.7% | X2 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 88.0% | away | 12.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.8% | no | 46.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 42.1% | away | 7.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 38.5% | away | 4.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.3% | home_by_2 | 21.0% | home_by_3plus | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 6.9% | away_by_2 | 2.4% | away_by_3plus | 0.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 3.6% | 0-1 | 2.5% | 0-2 | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.4% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 1-1 | 7.5% | 1-2 | 3.1% |
| 1-3 | 0.9% | 1-4 | 0.2% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | 3-1 | 7.9% | 3-2 | 3.4% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 5.8% | 4-1 | 5.1% | 4-2 | 2.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 3.0% | 5-1 | 2.6% | 5-2 | 1.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 4.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 96.4% | under_0.5 | 3.6% | over_1.5 | 86.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 14.0% | over_2.5 | 66.6% | under_2.5 | 33.4% |
| over_3.5 | 44.9% | under_3.5 | 55.1% | over_4.5 | 26.2% |
| under_4.5 | 73.8% | over_5.5 | 13.4% | under_5.5 | 86.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.2% | even | 50.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 92.3% | under_0.5 | 7.7% | over_1.5 | 72.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.4% | over_2.5 | 47.3% | under_2.5 | 52.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 57.9% | under_0.5 | 42.1% | over_1.5 | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.5% | over_2.5 | 5.7% | under_2.5 | 94.3% |
most
| home | 73.7% | draw | 16.3% | away | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.4% | away_+2.5 | 68.6% | home_-1.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 47.6% | home_-0.5 | 73.7% | away_+0.5 | 26.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 89.9% | away_-0.5 | 10.1% | home_+1.5 | 96.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 3.1% | home_+2.5 | 99.3% | away_-2.5 | 0.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 3.6% | exact_1 | 10.4% | exact_2 | 19.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 18.7% | exact_5 | 12.8% |
| exact_6 | 7.4% | exact_7plus | 6.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 66.6% | draw | 26.7% | away | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.0% | under_0.5 | 19.1% | over_1.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.6% | over_2.5 | 23.2% | under_2.5 | 76.8% |
btts
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 19.1% | exact_1 | 31.6% | exact_2 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 14.5% | exact_4plus | 8.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 52.7% | draw | 29.4% | away | 17.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.9% | under_0.5 | 15.1% | over_1.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.6% | over_2.5 | 29.4% | under_2.5 | 70.6% |
btts
| yes | 33.1% | no | 66.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 59.9% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.1% | D/D | 7.9% | D/A | 4.8% |
| A/H | 1.5% | A/D | 1.8% | A/A | 3.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 67.7% | under_7.5 | 32.3% | over_8.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.8% | over_9.5 | 44.7% | under_9.5 | 55.3% |
| over_10.5 | 34.1% | under_10.5 | 65.9% | over_11.5 | 25.0% |
| under_11.5 | 75.0% | over_12.5 | 17.6% | under_12.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.8% | under_3.5 | 27.2% | over_4.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.3% | over_5.5 | 44.7% | under_5.5 | 55.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.0% | under_3.5 | 49.0% | over_4.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.2% | over_5.5 | 22.2% | under_5.5 | 77.8% |
most
| home | 60.5% | draw | 9.8% | away | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.3% | away_+3.5 | 69.7% | home_-1.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.9% | home_-0.5 | 60.5% | away_+0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.3% | away_-0.5 | 29.7% | home_+1.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.2% | home_+3.5 | 90.7% | away_-3.5 | 9.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.4% | under_22.5 | 42.7% | over_24.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.8% | over_26.5 | 33.7% | under_26.5 | 66.3% |
| over_28.5 | 23.8% | under_28.5 | 76.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.0% | under_10.5 | 27.0% | over_12.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.3% | over_14.5 | 42.1% | under_14.5 | 57.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 43.7% | under_10.5 | 56.3% | over_12.5 | 27.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 72.7% | over_14.5 | 15.4% | under_14.5 | 84.6% |
most
| home | 68.2% | draw | 5.4% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 44.0% | away_+4.5 | 56.0% | home_-2.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.6% | home_-0.5 | 68.2% | away_+0.5 | 31.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.6% | away_-0.5 | 26.4% | home_+2.5 | 82.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.3% | home_+4.5 | 89.5% | away_-4.5 | 10.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.8% | under_6.5 | 26.2% | over_7.5 | 61.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 38.2% | over_8.5 | 49.2% | under_8.5 | 50.8% |
| over_9.5 | 37.3% | under_9.5 | 62.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.7% | under_3.5 | 23.3% | over_4.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.4% | over_5.5 | 45.9% | under_5.5 | 54.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 39.3% | under_3.5 | 60.7% | over_4.5 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 77.4% | over_5.5 | 11.7% | under_5.5 | 88.3% |
most
| home | 71.0% | draw | 10.2% | away | 18.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 46.2% | away_+2.5 | 53.8% | home_-0.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 29.0% | home_+0.5 | 81.2% | away_-0.5 | 18.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 93.9% | away_-2.5 | 6.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.9% | under_2.5 | 13.2% | over_3.5 | 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.6% | over_4.5 | 54.6% | under_4.5 | 45.4% |
| over_5.5 | 37.1% | under_5.5 | 62.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.4% | under_1.5 | 35.6% | over_2.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 75.6% | under_1.5 | 24.4% | over_2.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 48.7% |
most
| home | 31.7% | draw | 18.0% | away | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.3% | away_+1.5 | 82.7% | home_-0.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.3% | home_+0.5 | 49.8% | away_-0.5 | 50.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 67.7% | away_-1.5 | 32.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 77.4% | under_20.5 | 22.6% | over_22.5 | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 34.4% | over_24.5 | 52.7% | under_24.5 | 47.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 72.2% | under_9.5 | 27.9% | over_11.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.5% | over_13.5 | 35.3% | under_13.5 | 64.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 78.1% | under_9.5 | 21.9% | over_11.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.8% | over_13.5 | 43.1% | under_13.5 | 56.9% |
most
| home | 41.2% | draw | 6.6% | away | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.5% | away_+3.5 | 76.5% | home_-0.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.8% | home_+2.5 | 60.9% | away_-2.5 | 39.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 36.4% | no | 63.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 12.5% | no | 87.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 27.3% | no | 72.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Sp Lisbon predictions · Arouca predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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