Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.9% for over 2.5 to 37.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. Head to head on cards, Arouca are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 18.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.9% | 13.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.1% | 62.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.4%
37.6%
75.6%
51.3%
Card handicap
| Sp Lisbon line | Sp Lisbon | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| +0.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| +1.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 52.7% | 47.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Sp Lisbon cards per game12.3Sp Lisbon fouls per game2.5Arouca cards per game9.3Arouca fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca. It tips Arouca for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
72.4%Over 3.5 cards36.4%Any red card64.4%Sp Lisbon over 1.5 cards75.6%Arouca over 1.5 cards65.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Sp Lisbon over 1.5 cards sits at 64.4% and Arouca at 75.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 36.4% (Sp Lisbon 12.5%, Arouca 27.3%). This season Sp Lisbon have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Arouca 2.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 72.4% for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca.
Will there be a red card in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates a red card for either side at 36.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates Arouca to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,399 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
