Primeira Liga
Sp Lisbon vs 
Arouca Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 66.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Sp Lisbon have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Arouca 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.6% for over 2.5 and 86.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Sp Lisbon have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Arouca in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 4.5 goals | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 13.4% | 86.6% |
Team goal lines
92.3%
72.6%
47.3%
57.9%
21.5%
5.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.0% | 19.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.4% | 70.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Sp Lisbon goals scored per game1.0Sp Lisbon goals conceded per game66.7%Sp Lisbon Over 2.5 rate1.5Sp Lisbon 1st-half goals per game1.3Arouca goals scored per game0.8Arouca goals conceded per game50.0%Arouca Over 2.5 rate0.7Arouca 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
53.8%Both Teams to Score66.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 66.6% for three or more goals and 86.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Sp Lisbon favoured at 73.7%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sp Lisbon to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Lisbon 4 · 1 draws · Arouca 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 66.6% for Sp Lisbon vs Arouca.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sp Lisbon vs Arouca?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 81.0%.
How often have Sp Lisbon gone over 2.5 recently?
Sp Lisbon have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Arouca in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,518 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
